Tuesday, November 25, 2008

C'mon Dawgs, Let Your Balls Drop

I have heard too much pussified whining about how Tech is going to run all over Georgia because "look what they did to Miami." Guess what, we aren't Miami. Senator Blutarsky had some valid points on this issue today that you should read (as if you haven't already.) If Tech had gashed everyone like the did Miami, then I would be more worried. But, before you concede the game to Tech because our defense has tackled poorly lately, let's consider a little more of Tech's body of work.

The five games prior to the domination of Miami looked like this:

Tech 10 - Gardner Webb 7 (3.4 yards per play.)
Tech 21 - Clemson 17 (4.7 yards per play.)
Tech 17 - Virginia 24 (4.6 yards per play.)
Tech 31 - FSU 28 (6.7 yards per play.)
Tech 7 - UNC 28 (5.5 yards per play.)

That is an average of 17 points per game against mediocre competition. On the season, they average 6.1 yards per play. Our defense, on the year, has allowed 5.0 yards per play. While these stats can be meaningless if we give them great field position all day or if we turn the ball over, I think another conclusion to draw from these figures is that we should not expect them to score much more than 17 points.

Do you have any idea what our offense averages? 6.7 yards per play. Their defense only allows an average of 4.5 yards per play, but they have surrendered an average of 24 points per game during the past 5 games. We have scored an average of 29 points per game over the past 5 games - including our 10 point outing against Florida. My point is that if those mediocre ACC teams could score 24 points per game, then we should too. And, if those mediocre ACC teams could hold them to an average of 17 points per game, then we should too.

This is not my final prediction on the game, but on paper, we should beat them by more than 24-17 despite our defensive woes on occasion. If the turnover battle is even or in our favor, then we win this game by at least a touchdown but probably by two touchdowns. So stop worrying and start planning to GATA!

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