Saturday, November 24, 2007


At first, I was concerned that an LSU loss would hurt our shot at a BCS berth - assuming we beat Tech today. But now I can only determine one scenario in which the LSU loss hurts Georgia, two scenarios that are neutral, and one scenarios where the loss actually helps.

Here are the scenarios in which the LSU loss is inconsequential:

#1. Tennessee beats Kentucky. Georgia beats Tech. LSU wins SECCG. Georgia is 10-2 and BCS Bowl bound.

#2. Kentucky beats UT. Dawgs beat Tech. Dawgs win SECCG and go to BCS Bowl.

Here is the one scenario where the LSU loss helps the Dawgs.

#3. UT beats UK. Dawgs beat Tech. UT wins SECCG. Now UT goes to BCS Bowl and the Dawgs go to a BCS Bowl instead of the three-loss LSU. Had LSU not lost to Arkansas, we would get left out most likely.

The one scenario in which the LSU loss hurts the Dawgs - and this one is convoluted and requires all kind of things to happen involving the MNC Game.

#4. Before the LSU loss last night, for Georgia to have a far-flung shot at the MNC Game a victory over the #1 ranked LSU Tigers in the SECCG was expected to boost their BCS formula points. Now, if Georgia gets to the SECCG and beats LSU ranked around 6-8, then the BCS formula points will be a little lower. The other things that need to happen: West Virginia loses to UConn or Pitt. The Missouri/Kansas winner today gets beat by Oklahoma in Big 12 Championship Game. Then it comes down to 11-1 Ohio State facing one of the following two-loss teams resolved by the mysterious BCS Formula: UGA 11-2, Oklahoma 11-2, West Virginia 10-2, and possibly Virginia Tech as ACC Champs and 11-2. That leaves out an 12-1 or 11-1 Kansas and a 11-2 Missouri because they did not win their conference. I firmly believe that you should not be in the MNC Game if you do not win your conference. Anyway... The only chance that the LSU loss affects the Dawgs is if we get into hundreths of points in the BCS Formula after all these possible but not extremely likely outcomes come to pass.

If all the things that need to happen for the Dawgs to make the MNC Game do not happen, then I would prefer to see West Virginia against the Kansas/Missouri winner. Ohio State can go play in the Grand Daddy and lose to USC.

Feel free to point out any flaws in my logic or oversights or plain ignorance on my part. No matter about all this conjecture, the DAWGS must beat Tech today. That is imperative!


1 comment:

Ally said...

We're Orange or Rose bound. Hopefully LSU beats the shit out of UT, just to make me feel better.