Thursday, October 16, 2008

Stafford and Moreno at the Half

Before the season, I made projections on the output for Stafford and Moreno. We are now half way through the 12-game regular season. Now seems like a good time to see how the progress compares to the projections.

Projection: I suspect that Stafford's best line will look something like this:235 completions on 392 attempts for a 60% completion percentage. 3220 yards for 230 yards per game. 8.2 yards per attempt and 25 TDs. (These projections were based on best-case scenario of playing 14 games.)

Progress: 111 completions on 180 attempts for 61.7% completion percentage. 1503 yards for 250.5 yards per game. 8.35 yards per attempt and 8 TDs.

Stafford's Attempts are 2 more per game than projected and completion percentage is 1.7% higher than projected. This has led to almost two more completions per game. The average yards per attempt is almost exactly as projected (8.35/8.2) and the yards per game is up from 230 to 250.5. He is well on his way to surpassing the yardage projection of 3220. If he keeps pace, he will reach about 3500 yards.

The biggest discrepancy is TDs. He has 8 and is on pace for 18 or 19 if we play 14 games. This is well short of the 25 TDs projected. He would need to average 2.38 TDs per game the rest of the way to hit my projections.

Though I did not make projections regarding interceptions, Stafford has 3 thus far for an average of 0.5 per game. On that pace, he would have only 7 picks in a 14 game season. Last year, he had 10 picks in 13 games. So he is on track to having a better season in that regard as well.

Groo points out that Stafford's numbers are not tracking to meet Stafford's own pre-season goals. His goals were a little lofty, as you can see.

Projection: I project that Moreno's best line will look something like this:1806 yards on 322 attempts for a 5.6 average and 22 TDs. (These projections were based on best-case scenario of playing 14 games.)

Progress: 590 net yards on 105 attempts for a 5.6 average and 10 TDs.

Knowshon is averaging 5.6 yards per carry as I projected but he is not getting as many attempts as projected (17.5 vs 23.) His 98.3 yards per game is below the 129 ypg projection but it is mainly a result of fewer carries. His carries were limited in the first two games by cramps and substitutions. He was limited against Alabama after injuring his elbow. In fact, the only two games in which Moreno got 23 or more carries are ASU (23 for 149 yards) and UT (27 for 101 yards.) For the remainder of the year, Moreno could reach 1600 yards if he averages 23 carries per game. He is currently on pace for 1376 yards in 14 games and can only reach 1800 yards if he averages 151 yards per game. That won't happen. I still think 1600 could happen and might be enough for a Heisman if we run the table.

Knowshon has 10 TDs through 6 games and is on pace to score 23 TDs - which is one better than the 22 TDs projected.

I believe all of the talk about Knowshon not having as good a year as expected is premature. His YPC is tracking through 6 games although his YPC in SEC play is around 4.0. A big day against Vanderbilt can go a long way toward fixing that. However, Vandy is currently only allowing 3.48 YPC. But... last year Vandy allowed 3.73 YPC for the year and Knowshon chewed them up for 157 yards and 5.6 YPC.

In sum... Stafford is ahead of pace and Knowshon is on pace for most categories except attempts and total yards - which are correlated.

What do you think about these two guys, statistically and what about their intangible assets thus far this season?

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