HDD PREDICTION - WLOCP

If you have read my analysis in my previous posts, you will notice that I spent very little time discussing the Gator offense and how to stop them. That is because the only way I can think of is to keep them on the bench. So I focused on our offense against their defense. It was more comfortable for me this way as well! Their offense is ridiculously explosive and will score points on anybody. They can be held under 30 points, but it will require a great effort on our defense and an edge in the turnover margin and no blocked punts or touchdowns on returns. Like Halloween, their are plenty of scary things to think about with their offensive skill players, their return man Brandon James and their knack for blocking punts.


In truth, we won't stop them often. So, the only way to beat them is to outscore them. That is why I devoted way too much time to trying to determine if we will be able to score enough points to win this thing. I have gained confidence that we will be able to approach and probably exceed 400 yards in total offense. But, the key will be if we can convert this into touchdowns. I think that the balance we have on offense and the significant improvement we have experienced since Southerland has returned from injury will help us find the endzone when we get to the red zone. It will be a windy day, so kicking field goals can be risky, but I also like our chances with Walsh if we need to kick. Stafford's experience in recognizing defenses and getting us in the right plays will have to be peaking in this game for us to capitalize on every scoring opportunity we get. We absolutely cannot leave points on the field in this game.

I am confiedent we will get to 30 points. I feel like we will beed to get to about 35 or 38 points to win. We may need help from our defense or return teams to get that extra score. Or, we could flip the scrip and have Zac Renner get in there and block one of their punts.

I am running out of time here... got to go out and get a couple of beers. Priorities you know!

I think we have one secret weapon on defense and that is Bryan Evans. Not as a corner - he is a liability there. As a safety, he will be the surprise of this game. He is the fastest defender we have and he is very effective on run support. He is just the guy to have out there to track down there speedsters. He is a Jacksonville native and he will be amped up to make some plays in this game. I think he will.

Here is another point I wish to make. If we ever get in a 3rd and forever (like 15 to 20 yards) we need to send Green 50 yards down the middle and have Stafford throw a rainbow out there and let Green try to out jump the Gator defenders. If we catch it, hooray! If they catch it, okay - better than punting to them!

Here is my final answer: Dawgs win the turnover margin by one and win the game by 3. DAWGS 38 - Gators 35.

GATA!

TYING IT ALL TOGETHER

I have explored what I wondered might be "Chinks" in the Gators armor. There were 5 in all and the research and analysis appears in the previous posts. Of the 5 areas explored, I have been encouraged about 3 and I am neutral about the other two. Here is the summary:

1. Can Knowshon run on the Gators again this year? The short answer is that, statistically, their run defense is a little less stubborn this season. Our run offense is more productive now than it was last season. For these two reasons, I think we will do no worse than our rushing average for the season, which is 173 yards. Of that total, I think Knowshon will be around 130-140.

2. Has Florida faced a quality, experienced QB this season? This one is totaly straight forward. Absolutely not. They have faced one mediocre senior in Casey Dick and every other QB they faced (11 in all) had a combined total of 35 passes at the college level before this season. Last year they had faced 6 straight senior QBs coming into the game and Stafford had one of his best games. The seasonal average passer rating of their opponents this season is 114 and against Florida they have an average passer rating of only 99. Stafford enters the game with a passer rating of 146. He is magnitudes better than the competition they have faced and has better receivers than every team they have faced (with LSU being the next best.)

I think Stafford will throw it between 23-28 times for over 200 yards and closer to 250 yards. Combining this with our rushing yardage, we should be between 400 and 425 total yards of offense. Our average for the season is 431. Our two off games were South Carolina (252 yards) and Alabama (324 yards.) The Gator defense does not worry me as much as those two defenses did because of personel match-ups and the improvement in our o-line. Florida does rank close to SC and Alabama in total yards surrendered per game (273 for UF, 256 for USC and 263 for US.) So, in my opinion, even if they have a great day against us, we should still amass no less than 350 yards - which probably will not be enough to win.

3. Can the Gators Sack Stafford? They average 2.29 sacks per game. We have allowed 1.13 sacks per game. I think they will sack Stafford once or twice. If they get more than that, things could get tough for the Dawgs! But, I don't think they will get Stafford more than once from a 3 or 4 man rush. So if they have to blitz to get pressure, I like our chances to beat the blitz with max protection schemes and an experienced QB putting us in the right plays.

4. How do their shorter defensive backs match up with our tall receivers? I don't think this height difference will matter often but it could come into play in the red zone or in a long jump ball play. We could see an advantage in size on downfield blocking, but their d-backs are aggressive and physical, so this probably won't be a distinct advantage.

5. Can we sack Tebow again this year? We are getting 1.88 sacks per game and they are allowing only 1.43 sacks per game. We have more healthy defensive ends for this game than we have had for a long time. But, none of them are named Marcus Howard. I expect us to sack Tebow twice. But, as a glimmer of hope, I point out that coming into the WLOCP last year, we were averaging only 1.71 sacks per game and we sacked Tebow 6 times and went on to average 5 sacks per game for the last 6 games. Is there another Marcus Howard waiting to breakout in this game? Maybe Justin Houston - please!

So there are the 5 areas analyzed. I think we can expect to have a better day against their defense than any other team they have faced. In my next post, I will indicate how much better - in terms of points on the scoreboard.

GO DAWGS!

CHINK #5: Can we get to Tebow again?

Possible Chink #5:

5. Can we sack Tebow again?

Last year we sacked Tebow 6 times. He was under pressure all day. It was a coming out party for Marcus Howard and it contributed significantly to the Dawgs victory. But, Marcus Howard is now in the NFL and the Dawgs have not yet generated the type of pass rush that we had down the stretch last season. So, the big question is: Will we be able to pressure and sack Tebow tomorrow?

We have 15 sacks on the season for an average of 1.88 sacks per game. Here are our sack totals for each game compared to the opponents average sacks allowed per game:

GSU: 3/2.63
CMU: 1/1.5
SC: 2/3.5
ASU: 4/2.29
UA: 1/1.38
UT: 2/1.5
VU: 0/1.75
LSU: 2/1

Statistically, we sack teams only slightly more than they average giving up sacks. So how many sacks do the Gators allow? They have allowed 10 sacks in 7 games for an average of 1.43 sacks per game. This would lead us to believe that we may sack Tebow once or twice and no likely more than that.

As a caveat, I will point out that the Gators gave up an average of only 1 sack per game last year and we sacked Tebow 6 times. That would be a beautiful thing to repeat, but without Marcus Howard, I don't see it. But, if you want to remain hopeful, consider this... coming into the WLOCP last season we had only 12 sacks in 7 games (1.71 per game.) So, despite the perception, the 2008 Dawgs are ahead of last year's team at this point in the season. In 2007, we got 30 sacks in the last 6 games - starting with Florida.

What I expect to see is two sacks of Tebow. Anything more will be gravy for the Dawgs.

CHINK #4: How will their DBs match up with our tall receivers?

Possible chink #4:

4. How will their DBs match up with our tall receivers?

Our receiving corps consists of:
AJ Green (6-4, 200)
Mohamed Massaquoi (6-2, 204)
Kris Durham (6-5, 208)
Kenneth Harris (6-3, 208)
Demiko Goodman (6-2, 190)
and Michael Moore (6-2, 200) **not so sure he is this tall**

Even if Michael Moore is not as tall as he is listed, the other guys are every bit as tall as advertised. We have seen them use their height advantage in going after the ball and their size helps them get physical on downfield blocking. So what about the Florida defensive backfield?

Corners:
Joe Haden (5-11, 185)
Janoris Jenkins (5-10, 185)
Wondy Pierre-Louis (6-1, 185)
Safeties:
Major Wright (6-0, 200)
Ahmad Black (5-9, 190)

These guys are about average height for a defensive backfield and may be a little heavier if these weights are accurate. While none are tall, they certainly aren't smurfs. Still, at 6-4/6-5, I think Green and Durham have decided height advantages and I would like our chances in jump ball situations. Nevertheless, we won't see any more advantage in this game than we have seen in most of our other games. A slight advantage, but nothing to get too revved up about.

CHINK #3: Can They Pressure Stafford with 3 or 4 Man Rush?

Possible Chinks in the Gator Armor

3. Can they get to the QB with a 3 or 4 man rush? Our O-line continues to improve, but we can we expect from the Gators pass rush?

The Gators have 16 sacks on the season. Of those, 13 came from defensive linemen, 1.5 from MLB and 1.5 from DBs.

Here are their sacks by game compared to the opponents sacks allowed on average per game:

Hawaii: Gators got 4/Hawaii allows 3.63 per game
Miami: 3/2
UT: 0/1.5
Ole Miss: 2/1.25
Ark: 4/3
LSU: 2/1
UK: 1/0.75

As you can see, the Gators are getting an average of 0.4 sacks more than each team has allowed. In other words, the Gators tend to sack these teams more than they are normally sacked.

Through 8 games, UGA has allowed 9 sacks for an average of 1.13 sack per game. Here are the sacks we have allowed and the average sacks per game for the opponent defense:

GSU: 1/2.25
CMU: 0/2.38
SC: 4/1.5
ASU: 1/1.29
UA: 2/1.75
UT: 0/1.75
VU: 0/3.13
LSU: 1/2.29

The Dawgs are allowing 0.92 less sacks per game than their opponents have averaged. In other words, the Dawgs allow less sacks than their opponents normally get.

We know the Dawgs have a young offensive line, but, like last year, the line has improved steadily throughout the season. In fact, this young O-line has allowed only one sack in the past three games and that was with 85 pass attempts. In short, the O-line has protected Stafford well. In addition, we have kept a tight end and/or running back in on max protection frequently in the past few games.

What to expect? Based on performances, I can't see any reason to expect the Gators to sack Stafford as often as they have sacked other QBs, which is an average of 2.29 sacks per game. They will probably get him once or twice. Any more than that will be a disappointment for our offense.

To answer the original question: I think the Gators will have trouble getting to Stafford with a 3 or 4 man rush because of our utilization of max protect schemes with 6 or 7 blockers in pass protection. I think they will get Stafford once without blitzing. If they get him more than once, it will be with blitzes. I don't think they will get him 3 times.

PULPWOOD PREDICTS: Georgia vs. Florida

Pulpwood is coming back atchall from St. Simon Island.

WARNING: Do not do this link around your children, Grandmother or pastor. Let's just say the language is fitting for the magnitude of the game!

Chinks #2: Has Florida faced a quality QB yet?

Possible Chink #2:

2. UF pass defense has not faced a quality, experienced quarterback this season. If this is true, how have they fared against the QBs they have faced? I recall that Jevan Snead made a few plays on them, but I don't know if any other QB has had any success at all. So, which QBs have they faced and how will they fare against our passing attack?

Here are the numbers on the Florida Pass Defense: on the season they have allowed 225(att) - 126(comp) - 1195(yds) - 10(int) - 5(TD). The completion percentage is 56%. Yards per attempt = 5.31 and yards per catch = 9.48. Yards per game = 171. Average passer rating = 99.

The numbers from last year: 466 - 277 - 3361 - 11 - 19. 59% completions, 7.21 yards per attempt, 12.13 yards per catch and 258 yards per game. Average passer rating = 129. This appears to be a much improved pass defense based on these numbers alone. But, we need to look at the QBs they have faced this season to see who has put up such shoddy numbers against the Mighty Gator.

Here are the QBs they have faced:

Hawaii: used three ineffective QBs who have an average passer rating of 111 (81 vs UF). Their line against UF: 21/39 for 181 yds, 1 TD and 4 Int.

Miami - 2 Freshmen (Marve and Harris) with an average passer rating of 113 (85 vs UF.) Their line against UF: 12/22 for 79 yds, 0 TD and 0 Int.

Tennessee: Now-deposed Sophomore Jonathon Crompton with an average passer rating of 96 (106 vs UF.) His line against UF: 18/28 for 162 yds, 0 TDs and 1 Int.

Ole Miss: Sophomore transfer from Texas, Jevan Snead beat the Gators. He has a passer rating of 128 (139 vs UF.) His line against UF: 9/21 for 185 yds, 2 TDs and 1 Int.

Arkansas: Senior Casey Dick with a passer rating of 115 (107 vs UF.) His line against UF: 24/38 for 220 yds, 0 TDs and 1 Int.

LSU: Freshman Jarret Lee with a passer rating of 135 (117 vs UF.) His line against UF: 25/41 for 241 yds, 2 TDs and 2 Int (Hatch had two of these completions.)

Kentucky: 50/50 between Hartline (So) and Cobb (Fr) who combine for a passer rating of 103 (71 vs UF.) Their line against UF: 17/36 for 127 yds, 0 TDs and 1 Int.

If you thought they had not faced an experienced QB this season, you would have been absolutely correct. Here are the total collegiate pass attempts prior to this season for each of these QBs they have faced:

Hawaii - Gang of 3 = 15
Miami - Marve = Zero
Miami - Harris = Zero
Tennessee - Crompton = 12
Ole Miss - Snead = Zero
Arkansas - Dick = 493
LSU - Lee = Zero
LSU - Hatch = 2
UK - Hartline = 6
UK - Cobb = Zero

If you remove Arkansas's Casey Dick, in the other 6 games, all of the QBs combined had only 35 tosses at the college level. That barely equates to the equivalent of one game of experience, and that is among 11 QBs. I will let you draw your own conclusions about this one! The only experienced QB they have faced is Casey Dick and I have thought him to be a consistently mediocre QB at best over his years at Arkansas.

Here are Stafford's numbers through 8 games this year: 141/229 for 1946 yds, 12 TD and 5 Int. He has 61.6%completions and averages 8.5 yds per attempt and 13.8 yds per catch. He leads the SEC with 243 yards per game and has a passer rating of 146. Stafford will be the best QB that UF has faced since the WLOCP last year and it ain't even close.

Here is Stafford's line against UF last year: 11/18 for 217 yds, 3 TDs and 1 Int. That was good for a passer rating of an astronomical 206.

Here is a contrast between the type of QBs Florida had faced at this point last season and at this point this season: In 2007 UF saw Troy's exceptional senior Omar Haugabook, UT Senior Erik Ainge, Ole Miss Seniors Seth Adams and Brent Schaeffer, Auburn Senior Brandon Cox, LSU Senior Matt Flynn and Kentucky Senior Andre Woodson. (Their other game was against W. Kentucky and I didn't look them up.) So in 2007, Florida faced senior QBs every week coming into the WLOCP and Stafford ate their lunch. In 2008, the Gators have faced consistently below-average Casey Dick and a slew of QBs that had less than one game of experience between the 11 of them. I think it is fair to say that their secondary has not been adequately tested. Snead, Lee and Dick all had decent outings against UF in terms of yardage. If being a Junior with 34 games of experience can help Stafford throw at least two TDs, he will have another memorable outing against these Gators.

The answer to the original question is a resounding NO. UF has not faced a quality, experienced QB all season. That will change in about 2 more days. I think Stafford will throw the ball about 23 - 28 times in this game. I see no reason that he would not complete 60% which would give him around 16 completions which should be good for at least 200 yards. However, I truly expect his yardage to be closer to 250. If he can stay away from the costly INTs, then Stafford and Moreno should be able to lead the Dawgs to close to 30 points in this game. Will that be enough? Stay tuned.

Chink #1: Can Knowshon Run on the Gators Again?

Possible Chinks #1:

1. UF run defense may have trouble with Knowshon again. I saw the little back from Arkansas run the ball well against them, but I think they stopped Charles Scott. So, what can we expect?

Here is what I discovered digging into the numbers: Florida's improved 2008 defense is allowing 3.36 yards per carry this season. Their porous and youthful 2007 defense from a year ago allowed a whopping 3.0 yards per carry. Hmmm. Apparently, their run defense is not improved at all. They did have a monster day in stopping LSU's Charles Scott, holding him to a 2.9 ypc on 12 carries.

Here are the notable rushing performances against the Gators this season:
Arkansas: Team had a 5.64 ypc in the game but is only 3.98 ypc for the season. RB Michael Smith (5-7, 173lbs) went 20/133 for a 6.7 ypc.

Kentucky: Team had a 4.27 ypc in the game but is only 3.97 ypc for the season. It was running back by committee for the Cats.

Ole Miss: Team had a 3.68 ypc in the game and has a 4.44 ypc for the season.
McCluster (5-8, 165lbs) went 11/60 for a 5.5 ypc. and Bolden (5-11, 220lbs) went 13/55 and a 4.2 ypc.

The Gator run defense had their most impressive games against LSU (3.08 ypc for the game with a 4.91 ypc for the season) and Miami (1.65 ypc for the game and a 3.98 ypc for the season.)

Of the 7 games Florida has played, they have allowed only 2 teams to attain a higher ypc against the Gators than they have averaged on the season (Ark. and UK.) Those are two of the last three opponents. However, you have to include the whopper of a performance against LSU in the past three outings as well.

Coming into this game, as a team, UGA is averaging 4.95 yards per carry. Knowshon is averaging 6.2 ypc and averaging almost 19 carries per game (this includes only 8 carries against GSU and 9 carries against Alabama.)

WHAT TO EXPECT?

Last year, UGA entered the game with a 4.53 ypc and had 4.45 ypc in the game. Knowshon was 33/188 for 5.7 ypc. I don't think we should expect to have a better performance against Florida than we have averaged on the season, which is 173 yards per game. But, I also don't see any reason that we can't come close to our average performance either. My guess is that we will rush for somewhere between 150 and 175 yards in this game on about 35-40 attempts. We should average at least 4.5 yards per carry. To do that, Knowshon would need to average more than 5 ypc. All season long, I have posited that the magic number for Knowshon is at least 23 carries. He had only 21 against LSU, but I still say 23 is the magic number for a UGA win. If he has 23 carries with a 5.0 ypc, that will be 115 yards. If he has 33, like last year, that would be 165 yards.

We will have to take whatever their defense will give us. If they commit to stop the run and we can still have some success running, then everything else should work. If they stack the box like LSU did and we can make great blocks at the point of attack (like we did in Baton Rouge), then Knowshon will get into the secondary with some space. If they stack the box, it will make it easier for Stafford to throw to our tall receivers. What was a key in our rushing attack against LSU, was that they would commit safeties to stop Knowshon but we often ran the opposite way from where they sold out - which resulted in big plays. Same thing on a few of the long passes.

I think that having seen that, Florida will not sell out their safeties like LSU did. They will play us straight up with a few blitzes early to see how we are responding. We need to be able to establish the run early on so we can utilize play-action passing. This means our O-line will have to be up to the task on the opening drive like they were last year. They will need to recognize blitzes (Stafford too) and work us into good down and distance situations in the first quarter. Down and distance killed us in the first half against Bama. We have been much better since.

To answer the original question posed... I think Knowshon will have a good day running, but maybe not a great day. I will be shocked if they can shut him down completely without exposing themselves to a heavy dose of Stafford to Green/Massaquoi/Durham/Harris et. al. For Knowshon to have a great day, our O-line will have to play their best game of the year so far.

Can we win if Knowshon only has a "good" day - like 115 yards rushing? That will depend on the answers to the questions raised in points #2 through 4. Stand by.

CHINKS in GATOR ARMOR

Clearly the Gators have got their offense in high gear and their defense seems measurably improved from last season. They have speed all over the field and they are operating with a high level of confidence. So, I am wondering... what are the chinks in the Gator armor? I have a few preconceived notions and I will look into their statistics to see if any of these areas indeed appear to be potential weaknesses that could offer us some advantage. For now, I am going to list each possible chink and over the next couple of days, I will offer any relevant analysis based on their performance (and ours) leading into the WLOCP.

Possible Chinks:

1. UF run defense may have trouble with Knowshon again. I saw the little back from Arkansas run the ball well against them, but I think they stopped Charles Scott. So, what can we expect?

2. UF pass defense has not faced a quality, experienced quarterback this season. If this is true, how have they fared against the QBs they have faced? I recall that Jevon Snead made a few plays on them, but I don't know if any other QB has had any success at all. So, which QBs have they faced and how will they fare against our passing attack?

3. Can they get to the QB with a 3 or 4 man rush? Our O-line continues to improve, but we can we expect from the Gators pass rush?

4. How will their DBs match up with our tall receivers?

5. Can we sack Tebow again?

These are the 5 areas that seem like opportunites for us to take advantage. I will look into each over the next couple of days. I know we have some chinks in our armor, but that is not the point of this inquiry.

MUMME POLL after Weekend 10/25

My Mumme Poll Ballot following the weekend of 10/25 - some changes are afoot...

Top 5 - No particular order:
Texas
Alabama
Penn State (who will beat them now?)
Florida (next week, this spot will belong to the winner of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party)
Texas Tech (taking the place of Okie State and will either fall out after this coming Saturday or will prove they belong)

Next 7 - no particular order:
Georgia (I could have put them in the Top 5 instead of Texas Tech, but I gave the Raiders the benefit this week for still being undefeated. This will sort itself out in about 4 days. FWIW, I believe the Dawgs belong ahead of USC and Oklahoma.)
USC
Oklahoma
Utah
TCU
OK State (Close, but no cigar. Still good enough to stay in the Top 12.)
Boise State (holding my nose here because I doubt a WAC team can beat any of these teams just outside this second group such as: FSU, Ohio State, LSU or even Tulsa.)

I really wish there was a way to sort out Boise State, but they have a weak schedule all the way. TCU and Utah will prove it on the field in two weeks. I think FSU can jump ahead of Boise if they can beat Tech convincingly this week.

Go DAWGS!

DAWGS CRUISE TO BIG WIN IN BATON ROUGE

GEORGIA rolled up 52 Points in Death Valley and snapped LSU's 30 game home winning streak. Huge games were turned in by Darryl Gamble, Knowshon Moreno, Matthew Stafford and AJ Green. The offensive line had a solid game against a veteran front and the defensive ends were much more active than we have seen in most games this season.

(I did not catch these two reds, but no one else wanted to hold them for the picture.)

We had a great trip to New Orleans. Thanks to Kent Morrison and his family for hosting us for a fun day of trout and redfish fishing on Friday. On gameday, we had an entertaining bus ride to BR thanks to Andrew Rothschild and his hilarious impersonations. The game itself was shocking from the standpoint of how many big plays we were able to produce. To win in Death Valley and to make it look almost easy was completely unexpected. Our defense tackled poorly and gave up too many big plays. But, the offense (and Darryl Gamble) were up to the task to outrun LSU in this horse race.

Our bus ride back to New Orleans was a celebration as Rothschild again entertained and made our sides hurt. It was a terrific road trip, but we are glad to be home.

Now, all eyes turn to Jacksonville and the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Obviously, we here at Amelia Island enjoy this week and weekend as much as any other week of the year. It is always exciting to watch all the Dawg fans rolling into town with their flags flying as early as Monday. By Thursday, a drive down Fletcher Avenue along the beach, you will see big Georgia banners hanging from most balconies.

We hope to see many of you here by the weekend. This will be an epic match up between two explosive offenses. There is the whole "celebration" thing that Urban says in his book will be a big deal and now is saying it is not a big deal. Anyway, it's a big deal. The SEC East is on the line. Time for the Dawgs to put together a complete game in every phase of the game. I will get into the match up later in the week. Enjoy this week Dawgs, it is a big one.

GATA!

HDD PREDICTION - UGA over LSU

I am leaving in two minutes for the airport to go to New Orleans. I may not have another chance to post before the game. If not, here is my predicition...

Dawgs need to win with defense. Stuff the run and take away the short passing game. Sound familiar? Try like hell to get pressure on the quarterback. The biggest key is to have our front four keep their OL off our linebackers so our LBs can make plays.

On offense, we need to give the ball to Knowshon 23 times. Throw quick, high percentage passes. Attempt the long ball a few times, but please do not underthrow the thing. Green can run it down. Remember: "Throw it man. As far as you can."

If we keep the turnover margin neutral or in our favor, we win.

DAWGS 27 - LSU 17.

GATA!

Footie Picker - Weekend of 10/25

Last week I was 7-7, bringing my season record to 46-59. Here we go again...
This week: 8-6, Season: 54-65.

My picks in BOLD.

Thursday
WEST VIRGINIA 3.5 Auburn NOPE

Saturday
MIAMI 3 Wake Forest YEP
FLORIDA 23 Kentucky NOPE
Ole Miss 4 ARKANSAS YEP
VANDERBILT 10 Duke NOPE
Alabama 6.5 TENNESSEE YEP
GEORGIA TECH 13 Virginia YEP
TEXAS 12.5 Oklahoma State YEP
LSU 2.5 Georgia YEP
Oklahoma 19 KANSAS STATE YEP
FLORIDA STATE 5 Virginia Tech NOPE
Texas Tech pick'em KANSAS NOPE
Penn State 1.5 OHIO STATE NOPE
Southern Cal 14.5 ARIZONA YEP

A Couple of Things

Massaquoi and a Devastating Block

While watching the game against Vanderbilt, I noticed Mohamed Massaquoi make a Hines Ward-esque block on a Vandy linebacker and meant to mention it in my comments about the game. It was on the Moreno TD run that was called back because he knee touched the ground. The play was a sweep right and MoMass came from split to the right and was in motion going left and when the ball was snapped, he set up and then ate up a linebacker. He hit him with speed and force and totally decleated him and just smothered him. None of the replays showed the block and none of the announcers mentioned it on Raycom or CSS. Still, was a beautiful play. That kind of blocking along with good receiving will get you on an NFL roster!

Terrence Cody of Alabama

The gargantuan nose tackle for Alabama left the game against Ole Miss with a knee injury. Fortunately for him and his team, it is only a sprained MCL. He will be out at least a couple of weeks, but should return. Imagine if he was out for the year. Then imagine if left tackle Andre Smith was out for the year. Then imagine if right tackle Drew Davis was out for the year and then imagine if LB Rolando McClain was out for at least three conference games and would be slowed for the next two conference games after returning. Ok, got it? Now you're UGA in 2008.

IT'S TIME FOR A COMPLETE GAME

This is what it looks like when you get all of your gears moving at the same time in perfect rhythm...

PULPWOOD SMITH coming back atch-all

Pulpwood Smith on LSU

You know what theior quarterbacks are... don't you?

MUMME POLL after Weekend 10/18

Top 5, perhaps in order of magnitude (no change in the group - only in the top spot):

Texas (moved ahead of Bama based on impressive dismantling of Missouri)
Alabama
Penn State
Florida
OK State (Will this be the zenith of their season?)


Next 7, no particular order:
Texas Tech
Georgia
USC
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Utah
LSU (welcome back Tigers, hope your stay is a short one!)

Gone are:
BYU (Thank you TCU)

This took 5 minutes this week. Next week will most likely be a different story.

UGA-Vandy Observations

Georgia got the win 24-14. That is the most important point. It was not inspiring because of mistakes, dropped interceptions and frustrating play calling. Allow me to bitch for a few minutes and then I will get back to being sunny the rest of the week as we prepare for an epic trip to Baton Rouge.

1. We ran the ball almost at will, especially on the first drive of the second half. Then we abandoned the run and let the game tighten up and finally went back to the run late in the fourth quarter to secure the victory. Would have been nice to put this game away in the 3rd quarter. But, dumbass passing play calls prevented that.

2. Stafford had a good first half and an awful second half. He and the receivers were totally out of synch. So, why in the hell did Bobo insist on continuing trying to pass the ball when we could run at will? Stupid.

3. I love me some Knowshon Moreno, but why does he take a breather after every couple of plays? Sure, it is good for Caleb King to get some reps, but unless KM is hurt, he should be able to manage more than two or three consecutive plays. I have much more confidence in his running ability than I do in Caleb this year. Caleb will do some very good things, but KM is the special player right now and he needs to get the reps and needs to be able to stay on the field in the critical 4th quarter drive that can put the game away. This might seem overly critical, but it has been a pattern all year. ---UPDATE--- I saw that Knowshon's shoe came off after his second carry in the last long drive. That is why he came off at that time.

4. Drops by our secondary and LBs. I counted 4 that should have been caught and a couple more that would have been extraordinary grabs. Two of the dropped interceptions (I know there is really no such thing as a dropped interception because if it was an interception, by default it was not dropped - but bear with me) would have ended scoring drives by Vandy. Theoretically, this could have been a shutout if we could hang onto interceptions.

The SEC Truck commercial. It is sweet to see Dad and Son driving to the SEC game in the old Chevy truck. Tradition and all that. Can somebody tell me at which SEC stadium you can drive right up and park 30 feet from the gate while people are filing into the stadium? Seems more like Division III.

I am glad we got the win. It should not have been as difficult to put this one away. Bobo needs to become a little more comfortable running it down their throats if that is what is working.

HDD PREDICTION - UGA Over Vandy

This will be brief. Same gameplan as we had against UT. It is spelled out here. In a nutshell, our defense stuffs the run and takes away the short passing game and make the QB beat us over the top. Our offense stays balanced with about 45 runs and 25 passes. If they load the box, we pass a little more. Hopefully Moreno will get at least 23 carries. That is his magic number.

If we execute in the red zone, we win going away. We will botch it at least once, but otherwise, I see us getting it done.

I on't be in Athens and will miss the first few minutes if not the entire first quarter. I will be making my first 100 mile bike ride. We leave at 8:00 am and I hope to be back home between 1:00 and 1:30.

DAWGS 34 - Vandy 13.

Go DAWGS! GATA!

Thursday Night Games

Two points...

1. Ten years ago, would you have ever guessed that in 2008, the BYU-TCU game would have greater national relevance than FSU-NC State?

2. Remember when FSU football was explosive and exciting and couldn't possibly put you to sleep?