Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Hey Clawson, Run the Damn Ball
On the other hand, I was embarassed for the new UT Offensive Coordinator Dave Clawson who was too busy trying to be flashy and mix things up to even notice that his tailbacks were averaging 6 yards per carry. I was pretty good at math in school, but even for those who are mathematically challenged, it should be obvious that when you average 6 yards per carry you keep running the freaking ball.
But Clawson had much to prove on this night, his first on the big stage of Division One football. He wanted the world to see his innovative "Clawfense" in action. Apparently, the secret to the "Clawfense" is to gain 6 yards rushing on first down, then throw two incomplete passes and finish the possession either punting, having a punt blocked, or missing a field goal. Imagine how much easier it would have been to just keep pounding the football with his big, strong, quick tailbacks. I was astonished at how he kept stubbornly trying to pass when running the football was easy and obvious. What a dipshit. He cost his team this game.
If I was a Vol fan, I would be extremely pissed off at this grossly ineffective job of coaching.
That is all.
Stop Being Gloomy, Dawg!
For the past several days I have heard too much pessimism and gloom from fellow Dawgs. I think part of the gloom is because of the loss of Jeff Owens for the season. I must admit to having a pit in my stomach on Saturday night for this same reason. It does hurt us to lose Jeff Owens, but we still have a talented 4 man rotation at tackle and we should still be able to achieve our goals on defense. We cannot lose more defensive tackles, but so long as we do not, we will be fine.
The larger reason for the gloomy countenance of many Dawgs is because we did not annihilate Georgia Southern by a larger margin. Last year, all would have been content with this easy, cakewalk victory of 45-21. But this year, instead of viewing this game on its sole merits, many have compared our margin of victory against those of the other teams in the Top 5 and somehow found ours lacking. Consequently. these fans have been more critical of the performance than what may truly be fair or necessary. I believe that many feared we would lose our tenuous grip on the #1 ranking if we did not look better in our victory than OSU or USC looked in their respective victories. Well, friends, we could have won 66 - 7 if Coach Richt had wanted to. But, we still would have lost ground to USC who destroyed an awful Virgina team 52-7. Moreover, even if we had beaten GSU 99 - 0 and then beat CMU 66 - 0 this coming Saturday, it would not keep us on top after Sept 13 when USC pounds Ohio State in the first "huge" game of the season. Most bloggers already penciled in that date as the date that we would get leap-frogged in the polls. So, it happened two weeks early based on the strength of a USC blowout over Virginia. Forget about it. Do not get caught up in comparing our margins of victory with those of the other top ranked teams or this will not be an enjoyable season for you. You should not be surprised that Coach Richt was not interested in humiliating GSU. Indeed, Coach Richt has even said that he felt good about the performance. That is enough for me.
Here is a list of the highest scoring games of the Richt Era at UGA. In 7 years, only twice have the Dawgs scored in the 50's and only once in the 60's. There have been many occasions that scoring one or two more touchdowns would have been easy, but Richt substituted liberally to get his younger players some playing time.
2001: 45-17 Arkansas State, 43-29 Kentucky
2002: 45-7 Northwestern St., 48-17 Vanderbilt, 52-24 Kentucky, 51-7 Ga. Tech
2003: 30-0 Clemson, 41-14 Tennessee
2004: 48-28 GSU, 45-16 LSU, 62-17 Kentucky
2005: 48-13 Boise St, 44-7 La. Monroe, 45-13 Kentucky
2006: 48-12 W. Kentucky, 34-0 UAB, 37-15 Auburn
2007: 45-16 W. Carolina, 45-17 Ole Miss, 42-30 Florida, 44-34 Troy, 45-20 Auburn, 41-10 Hawaii
I think we should not despair merely because we did not score 60 points on GSU or that they scored 21 points after the score was 38-0 with 22 minutes remaining. It is not in Mark Richt's nature to roll up points solely for the purpose of impressing poll voters who only look at final scores. Coach Richt believes in allowing his players, lower on the depth chart, who work hard every day in practice, have a chance to get on the field when the situation allows it. For some of these players, this may have been the only game in which they will play all season.
With the schedule we have, we do not need style points. We just need to win. If we win, we will be in Miami in January.
GO DAWGS!
Ally has posted a comment that I think is extremely worthy of further discussion, so I brought it out to the main page here. Ally makes many great points below... Still, I say "Stop being so gloomy" to all of those who have suddenly gone in the tank after one game which we won by a blowout. This is the point in case about why you cannot win when you play Div 1-AA opponents. If you win 66-0 it is unsportsmanlike. If you call off the dogs, it becomes lackluster. Unless one believes we will not improve from this point, then I suggest to sit back, relax, pour a drink and enjoy the ride. It is, after all, a comfortable band-wagon, no? Now, for the counterpoints.
Ally's points in red, my counterpoints in black
For me, its not that I wanted CMR to run up the score. I would never expect that from him, and quite frankly I appreciate that level of sportsmanship. Agreed. I don't think he is going to pour it on a team like GSU merely to impress poll voters who won't bother to look at anything other than the final score anyway.
The issue I had with the score, and what I have read from other fans & pundits, is the number of points given up by our defense. Yes, I understand that many of those were garbage points, however...
1. Twice before the 2nd & third stringers came in gsu was about to strike. 6 points were saved by Ellerbe's int and 3 were saved by a missed field goal. Here is a summary of GSU's first 9 possessions that yielded zero points:
GSU 1st S20 15:00 Kickoff S16 14:04 Punt 3--4 0:56On these 9 possessions, GSU amassed 134 yards on 45 plays for an average of 2.98 yards per play. Of these 134 yards, a net of 11 yards were due to penalties. The first two possessions were 3 and outs. The 3rd would have been a 3 and out but for an offsides penalty. Further discussion about the offsides penalties is below. The 4th started at the UGA 35 yard line resulting from the Samuel fumble. On the 5th possession, which was nine plays, we started with many fresh faces with Boykin, Cuff, Wood and Tyson all registering tackles. The 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th possessions totaled 12 plays. By the time GSU got the ball for their first scoring drive, the 3rd Quarter clock showed 5:55.
GSU 1st S24 12:17 Kickoff S30 10:29 Punt 3-6 1:48
GSU 1st S48 08:15 Kickoff G19 03:22 Missed FG 9-33 4:53
GSU 1st G35 03:02 Fumble G10 14:17 Interception 9-25 3:45
GSU 2nd S24 12:31 Kickoff G42 08:45 Punt 9-34 3:46
GSU 2nd S18 04:51 Punt S25 03:01 Punt 3-7 1:50
GSU 2nd S27 00:24 Kickoff S29 00:00 End of half 1-2 0:24
GSU 3rd S30 14:08 Kickoff S37 12:41 Punt 3-7 1:27
GSU 3rd S19 11:06 Punt S35 07:35 Punt 5-16 3:31
So yes, we were fortunate that they missed a field goal on the third possession, but the possession would have ended after 3 plays and a sack by Dowtin (true Freshman) but for an offsides penalty by Lomax. And yes we needed an interception in the end zone to stop the 4th possession, but GSU started with a short field as a result of our fumble. So those things balanced out.
The first GSU touchdown drive, which started with 5:55 remaining in the third quarter (6 plays - 53 yards), was against our starting rotation on defense. So I grant that it was disappointing to see them yield a scoring drive. After that, we had many guys from the 3rd string and below (DeGenova, Tully, etc) in the game so I don't think you should place much weight on what happened in the fourth quarter.
2. The reason why we were so successful in last season's stretch was because we rotated in fresh legs from the depth chart. Our D was so strong there wasn't that much of a difference between the starters and 2nd stringers. That should have been the case Sat. The difference is that we saw many guys who played their first game that are not even on the two-deep getting reps from the second quarter until the end. This will pay dividends later even though it led to some missed assignments Saturday. This is how these newcomers will learn where to be and when to be there. Remember Curran's progress last season. It happened because he got reps. If they are going to make mistakes, this was the time to do it.
Also, our play was sloppy. Did you see J Lo jump TWICE in a row forcing Martinez to bitch out coach Fab? I don't blame him - that was ridiculous! The D looked sloppy. I saw it, fans saw it, and pundits saw it. Lomax was careless in trying to get a jump on the snap. Coach Richt addressed this on his show Sunday saying that he doesn't want to take away that aggression such that our d-line are slow to get off on the snap, but that we do need to avoid those penalties. He said Lomax will do the bear crawls or sprints and he will learn. Richt is not too concerned about this, so neither am I. When we were sloppy on defense, I think it was due to conditioning. Richt even mentioned this and pointed out that it had not been very hot for the previous week of practice. Also, remember that most of our ends and several other defenders were in green jerseys for a good portion of camp and that also affected their readiness. This is an excuse and it was a problem because so many were at least slightly banged up during camp. But, if they were unable to practice due to injury, what more can you do. They will improve the conditioning and hopefully we will see the fresher legs that we are looking for as we rotate players in and out.
Then you have a team like USC who travels across the country to face a BCS team (regardless of crappy conference affiliation) who won 9 games last year & played on New Years Day. USC destroyed them all day, while rotating in 2nd and 3rd stringers. And they didn't just substitute players in the 2nd half either! Frankly, I was surprised that they were not the preseason #1 based on the talent they have and the media love affair with them. They are a loaded team and if they have a strong quarterback, they will be tough for anyone to beat. Still, it was only one game. Last year, a stronger Virginia team lost their opener to Wyoming 23-3. Wyoming ended the year 5-7. Maybe UVA sucks in openers. We know USC is often killer in openers. In 2005 they beat Hawaii 63-17 and didn't lose until just about the last play of the season when Vince Young carried Texas across the goal line and delivered a National Title. Then, in 2006 USC opened the season by dominating Arkansas 50-14. Later, they lost to Oregon State 33-31 and then to UCLA 13-9 (which put Florida in the national title game.) USC is tough, no doubt about it. They may not lose a game all year. Which means that Ohio State will. What we really need to happen is for Oklahoma to lose at least once. But, good Lord, there is som much football to be played that there really is no other way to approach it except to take it one week at a time.
Georgia is more than capable of that type of play and its disappointing to see things fall so flat. Our defense can play better, and will play better. But I did not think it was a disappointing effort based on the fact that so many players got on the field for the first time in a Georgia uniform. I would like to see the conditioning improve and I expect we will. Whether we like it or not, style points do matter and they will matter all season long. I would agree that style points often matter. But, I stand by my point that with the schedule we have, we only have to win. If we win them all, we will not get the Auburn treatment and be left out of the title game. If we don't win them all, then we are at the mercy of the poll voters and opinion makers. Still, the games that can sway opinion our way are not these games against GSU and CMU, but pretty much all the rest of them. Had we pulled a Tech- Cumberland score of 220 to 0, we still would have dropped behind USC because of the opponent. I know some of the voters only saw our final score and thought our defense must be suspect. Well, I think they will be proven wrong soon enough if our defense lives up to its potential. If it does not, it is a moot point anyway because it will mean that we are not one of the best 2 or 3 teams in the country. For now we are #2. That is fine. It may even be better at this point. Either way, this premature and precarious early season ranking should not have this much effect on the psyche of the Dawgnation. The only thing that matters this week is to beat CMU and improve in the process. Oh, and we should also focus on enjoying the moment each weekend instead of looking down the road.
I also think UGA fans recognize that we're going to be fighting an uphill battle of perception all season long. Pollsters are infatuated with USC (as usual) despite their relatively easy conference play, and its going to take SEVERAL dominating wins in the SEC for us to overtake them - especially given how many voters doubt UGA's ability to stay in the hunt. USC has a great program and has had an amazing run of success over the past 6 seasons. They are one of the few teams to have enjoyed greater success than UGA during this same stretch. Our battle is not with USC however, unless and until we meet them in Miami. Our battle is with the eleven teams remaining on our schedule and an ardent hope that Oklahoma loses at least one game.
I am afraid that some Dawg fans are already predisposed to not enjoy this potentially magical season because of these worries about how bad we beat each team along the way so we can impress the voters. I have one friend whose knee jerked so hard after Saturday that he now projects us to lose 3 or 4 games. Huh? I am sorry, but I just did not take that away from the GSU game. It is important that we correct the mistakes we make from week to week. It is important that we improve our conditioning so that we are always in better condition than our opponents. It is important that we develop depth so that we have players ready in case of more injuries. We are not going to have any perfect games, but we will have some special games. GSU was not one of them. CMU won't be either. After that, they are all pretty big and the stakes go higher.
You can be sure that at some point, we will play an ugly game and pray that we come away with a win. We will also open up a 55 gallon drum of whoop ass at an unexpected point along the way. It will be a journey and the journey should be enjoyed in weekly increments so long as we notch a win that week. I think too many are worried about where we are ranked right now. This is a red herring. All that matters is winning our games. If we do, we will receive our just desserts. If we do not, we may play in a bowl game other than the Orange. Our foremost goal is to win the SEC East and then the SEC. If we can do that with a perfect record, hello Orange Bowl.
I say let's have some fun and stop scoreboard watching. I will change my tune if we lose a game and then need to compute all sorts of mental gymnastics to back our way into the chamionship game. But, it worked for LSU last year and Florida the year before, so it stands to reason that the SEC Champ has a great shot at the BCSCG again this year. It is a long season, but it will pass by all too quickly. Be sure to enjoy it before it is gone.
Stepping down from my soapbox now.
Likewise.
Go DAWGS!
Monday, September 01, 2008
PICS FROM ATHENS
Thursday, August 28, 2008
UGA - GA SOUTHERN: THOUGHTFUL PREVIEW
Georgia will score a bunch of points. Georgia Southern will not score very many points. DAWGS will win 48 - 7.
Defensive Goals:
- Hold GSU to less than 50 yards per quarter - at least up until we play all of the guys who will not be listed in our programs. Half way through the third quarter, GSU was scoreless and had right at 100 yards. After that point, they scored three times and rolled up 190 yards in the final 22 minutes. So I think our top defenders held them under 50 yards per quarter on average.
- 6 or more sacks. We had three. Lots of QB hurries but the mobility of the GSU QBs allowed them to avoid the sack a few times.
- 2 interceptions. We had one (Ellerbe) and Reshad Jones dropped a sure pick.
250 yards rushing. We had 212 and came up a bit short.
250 yards passing. We had 323.
No fumbles. We put two on the ground and lost one.
No interceptions from Stafford. No interceptions.
No sacks. There was one sack that I thought was Stafford's fault because he seemed to have time to throw it away. But, on a different play he also deftly sidestepped a blitzing LB to avoid getting crushed.
Go DAWGS! GATA!
Footie Picker - Weekend 8/30
Thursday
MIAMI (OHIO) 4 Vanderbilt Nope
SOUTH CAROLINA 12.5 NC State Nope
Saturday
*GEORGIA 34 Georgia Southern Nope
FLORIDA 34.5 Hawaii Yep
Virginia Tech 9.5 East Carolina (in Charlotte) Nope
MICHIGAN 3.5 Utah Nope
Southern Cal 20 VIRGINIA Yep
AUBURN 26.5 UL Monroe Nope
OLE MISS 8 Memphis Yep
Clemson 5 Alabama (in Atlanta) Yep
Missouri 9 Illinois (in St. Louis) Nope (just missed)
Sunday
LOUISVILLE 4 Kentucky YEP
Monday
Tennessee 7.5 UCLA Nope - nice one Vols!
5-8 on Week One. I have no idea how I will be able to sustain this proficiency.
GO DAWGS!
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Dear World Wide Leader
Dear ESPN,
Please have Mark May clean out his desk and all that shit on top of it, including his Jackie Sherrill Bobblehead Doll, his Stacy Lattisaw cassettes and his little magazine on NCAA 2009 cheats. Reassign him to Guantanamo Bay to cover the Detainee Flag Football League for your Al Jazeera sports affiliate. One way ticket only, please.
Do NOT fire Lou Holthh but take him out of the studio. Pay him handsomely for preparing insane non sequitur-laden pep talks.
Definition of hypocrite = person who complains about the amount of sex and violence on their TV. Really? Damn, and I thought it was a person who complains about too much noise coming from his gasoline-powered turtleneck sweater.
It never gets old watching Lou spit his way through many life lessons and rules to live by while also motivating us to go out and use our bodies as missiles against other humans. So yeah, keep him around for that.
Senator Blutarsky Asks, "How Fabulous Are The Freshmen?"
1. What does this say about the level of talent in this freshman class?
2. What does this say about what Coach Richt thinks his team can accomplish of this season?
Here are my thoughts...
Our two-deep depth chart has only 11 seniors and 10 or 11 juniors.
Our starting line-up for the GSU game will feature Seniors Tripp Chandler and Mo Massaquoi on offense and Wynn, Owens, Lomax, Ellerbe and Byrd on defense. Punter Brian Mimbs is also a senior and Brannan Southerland would be a third senior starter on offense if he was not injured. So 7 out of 22 starters are seniors. Over half of the two-deep are Sophomores or freshmen. We are not as young as last year, but we still have a ton of youth that will be on the field.
To answer your questions:
1. This year’s crop of freshmen has tremendous star power with at least 6 or 7 guys likely cracking the two-deep by mid-season. Glenn, Green, Jones, T. King, Dowtin and Rambo. Richard Samuel is neck and neck with Caleb King as Moreno’s back-up and if either Moreno or King gets nicked up, he is on the two deep. And of course, kicker Blair Walsh is a frosh. These 8 guys will all contribute on a team that returns 17 starters from the 2nd ranked team in the country that won its last 6 games by an average of 17 points. So it ain’t like the returners are chumps. WOW.
2. Crystal Football!
This is a Keeper
Here is an excerpt:
No. 8 of Gump for Heisman's 10 Things To Look Forward To This College Football Season...
8) Your girlfriend/wife questioning your sanity
Somewhere between the broken remote control and you shouting repeated obscenities at a 37”-inch Samsung LCD TV, it’s bound to happen.
‘You’re crazy.’
She’s right. You are fucking crazy. You’re bat-shit. And you know it. Then again, it’s the fall. 90,000 other people in hundreds of American cities go bat-shit every Saturday.
She just doesn’t understand. She’s a woman. And women are irrational. Women are so irrational they don’t understand why you spend 15% of your salary on season tickets and love your starting quarterback and hate your starting quarterback and love your starting quarterback and let the actions of 19 year-old strangers dictate your mood for one-fourth of the Caesarian calendar.
They just don't get it. Crazy bitches.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
It's The Defense, Stupid
"When I look at how good a team might be, I look at three things. Number one - schedule. Number two - quarterback. Number three - coach."
Now I don't necessarily want to dump on Bob, but his three keys seem to ignore defense. Hasn't he gotten the memo that defense wins championships? Well, in his defense (pun intended), most pundits overlook the value of defense because offense is sexier and sells better. Still, a quick survey of the last several National Champions profoundly illustrates how great defense brings home the crystal football.
LSU has won two since Y2k and in both cases they were led by stout defenses.
Despite the irrefutable genious of Urban's spread offense, Florida won almost exclusively because of a great defense that sent 9 players to the NFL.
Oklahoma won their recent title with a defense that kept FSU out of the end zone.
Miami, well pick any of their fistfull of rings - defense, defense, defense, defense, and defense.
Alabama in 1992 - let's see, ummm, was it the QB play of Jay Barker or could it have been the defense that gave up only 109 points in 12 games and held teams to less than 200 net yards per game.
Ohio State's title came by way of great defense all year long and especially against Miami in the BCSCG.
USC had great offenses, but Pete Carroll is a defensive coach and it wasn't until he built great defenses that USC became a perennial title contender.

Having said all of this, my optimism for a great season this year for UGA is because we have great players on defense. We are returning 9 starters. We have 5 tackles who will rotate freely and no one will run in the middle. Rushing numbers between the tackles will be in the range of the Stroud/Seymour era. Our two best LBs - Ellerbe and Curran - compare to any pair in the SEC. Our 5 best DBs form what is probably the best nickel package we have ever had at UGA. We have depth all over the board. When Vance Cuff and Akeem Hebron are third team guys, you have tremendous depth.
To counter Bob Neal, I would say that when I look at a team's chances for success, I look at (1) a defense that can stop the run, (2) a defense that can pressure the QB, (3) an offense that will neither keep the defense on the field all day nor put the defense in bad field position time after time.
I love me some defense!
Tuesday Triathlon Talk
Swim 1.2 miles - Bike 56 miles - Run 13 miles
I have had a recent set back with a strained lower back and had to take two weeks off. Today, I resumed my training and look forward to hopefully staying healthy for the next 6 weeks. I really want to finish this Half this year. It is what I have been training for since January when I was going to the Rec Center pool in the 6:00 am darkness when it was 40 degrees outside but 80 degrees in the water. I know I won't be fast, but I just want to finish it.
I have added a few fitness related links in my blogroll. One is "Crossfit Amelia Island" and that is where my wife spends her work day coaching and training. She also teaches spinning classes, compet
So what does this have to do with UGA football? Not much. But, if anyone reading my blog is interested in races in the North Florida area, there are plenty and they are always fun. We believe that the race here on Amelia Island can become an excellent destination race for triathletes from all over, not just us locals. Speaking of which, we do have a superb triathlon group here on the island. Many are fast, but they let me into the group anyway because I rarely miss a beer drinking outing. However, I was required to make a few long Saturday bike rides to earn my stripes. Now, after recent rides of 40, 50, 50 and 70 miles, I almost feel like I belong.
I can think of one Dawg connection that is triathlon related... former UGA receiver and punt returner Chris McCranie participates in many of our local triathlons. He lives in Jacksonville with his wife Jennifer - a sweetheart from my hometown of Douglas. They have a one year old boy that is unmistakeably Chris's baby.
About the only other Dawgly relevance I can think of is that I will have to moderate my game day festivities between now and October 4th. I suppose that means that I will be off the chain at the Tennessee game. Oh, shit!
Monday, August 25, 2008
Who Will Lead the Dawgs in Sacks?

This is a puzzle, IMHO. The Dawgs defense returns 9 starters, but one of the two that must be replaced is sack leader Marcus Howard who had10.5 in 2007. Here is a list of the 42 sacks compiled by our defense last year. Among the returning players are:
Geno Atkins - 7.5
Jeremy Lomax - 4.5
Dannell Ellerbe - 4.5
Rennie Curran - 3.5
Roderick Battle - 2.5
Kade Weston - 2
Jarius Wynn - 1
The sack leader this season will be from the front four, most likely an end. So who are the candidates? Jeremy Lomax, Roderick Battle, Jarius Wynn, Justin Houston, Geno Atkins, Corvey Irvin, Demarcus Dobbs, Neland Ball. Certainly we will have some sacks from other players, but the leader will come from this list.
Normally you would not expect the sack leader to be a tackle, but Geno Atkins penchant for penetrating the backfield makes him a viable candidate. Indeed, 14.5 of his 41 tackles last year were behind the line of scrimmage. That is better than one-third. I hear that Corvey Irvin is the quickest and most athletic of the tackles, so I have him on the list. I think we can rule out Jeff Owens and Kade Weston.
From the edge, we have Lomax and Battle returning with significant experience. Battle started every game last year and registered only 2.5 sacks among his 24 tackles. However, Lomax started no games but got to the quarterback for 4.5 of his 16 tackles. It appears that Lomax is fairly adept at getting to the quarterback and should post better numbers with increased playing time. Jarius Wynn had one sack in 9 tackles while Demarcus Dobbs had only one tackle all season. IN the spring game, Justin Houston showed impressive speed off the edge and will lead this team in sacks at some point, but will it be this year?
I think the top three guys will be Lomax, Atkins and Houston. I don't see any of these guys achieving double digits but I hope I am wrong about that. So how many sacks to expect? Here is a look at the past 6 sack leaders, all of whom were tremendous talents who moved on to the NFL:
2007 Marcus Howard - 11.5 (Team - 42)
2006 Charles Johnson - 9.5 (Team - 33)
2005 Quentin Moses - 11.5 (Team - 34)
2004 David Pollack - 12.5 (Team - 37)
2003 David Pollack - 7.5 (Team - 30)
2002 David Pollack - 14 (Team - 45)
It will be fantastic if we have a player burst on the scene like Pollack did in 2002, before every Defensive Coordinator learned to double-team him and to grab his jersey when that failed. I think we are more likely to see a leader in the 7-9 range with the next guy close behind. With that said, I will predict the following:
Lomax will lead the team with 8.5 sacks and Atkins will be second with 7 sacks. Houston will contribute 6 as a back up.
So, what are your thoughts? Care to take a stab at this?
The SEC is Better that the Big Ten - In Song
Did you catch the reference of back-to-back-to-back at the end? The Good Lord willing!
Go DAWGS!
Sunday, August 24, 2008
OFFENSIVE OUTPUT AND REASONABLE YARDAGE EXPECTATIONS

Much of Georgia's hopes for a dream season rest on the arm of Matthew Stafford and the legs of Knowshon Moreno and his capable back-ups. The term "Heisman Hopeful" has been applied to each UGA star. This has me wondering what are reasonable expectations for the Dawgs in terms of passing and rushing output. So I looked at the numbers from 2004, 2005 and 2007. I have excluded 2006 because we had an unsettled quarterback situation and the loss of our best RB half way into the season. I believe that what to expect this year can be reasonably projected from the results of 2004 (senior starter at QB, stable of capable RBs), 2005 (senior starter at QB, stable of of capable RBs) and 2007 (improving second year starter at QB, stable of capable RBs.) These projections obviously assume that Stafford and Moreno escape injury all year.
PASSING
2004: David Greene, DJ Shockley, et al combined for 201 completions on 363 attempts for 55.4%, 2972 yards (8.2 per attempt), 24 TDs. There were 30.3 attempts per game for 247.7 yards per game.
2005: Shockley, Tereshinski, et al combined for 201 completions on 363 attempts for 55.4%, 2977 yards (8.2 per attempt), 26 TDs. There were 27.9 attempts per game for 229 yards per game.
2007: Stafford, Cox, et al combined for 199 completions on 365 attempts for 54.5%, 2579 yards (7.1 per attempt), 20 TDs. There were 28.1 attempts per game for 198 yards per game.

Notice how similar the numbers are in 2004 and 2005. The main difference between 2004 and 2005 was that we played only 12 games in 2004 and 13 games in 2005. That accounts for the lower attempts and yards per game in 2005. Also note that Shockley missed the Florida game or the statistics would have certainly been a little better.
Now, compare Stafford's sophomore season to the previous two. The attempts per game at 28.1 were nearly identical to 2005 and only 2 passes fewer than 2004. The total yardage was down by 400 yards and the yards per game was down by roughly 50 and 30 yards compared t0 2004 and 2005. TDs were also down by 4 and 6 scores. What can we extrapolate from these figures?
I think we can expect attempts to be no more than 30 per game. I also expect to see Stafford's completion percentage to improve to no less than 60%. If that happens, his total yards and yards per attempt will go up. I think he will average around 230 yards per game based on an uptick in completion percentage and a better yards per completion based on more deep threats at receiver and a more experienced offensive line that should give Coach Bobo enough confidence to call for more deep balls. Based on this, he should have about 2760 yards in the 12 game regular season and could add another 230 to 460 yards depending on whether the Dawgs make the SECCG. If so, he would have about 3220 yards. His TDs will only go up to about 25 at most because of our preference to run the ball inside the red zone.
I suspect that Stafford's best line will look something like this:
235 completions on 392 attempts for a 60% completion percentage. 3220 yards for 230 yards per game. 8.2 yards per completion and 25 TDs.
Further reading: this is a good article about Stafford's numbers from PWD at Georgia Sports Blog.
RUSHING
2004: Freshmen Thomas Brown, Danny Ware, et al combined for 1882 yards on 463 attempts for a 4.06 average. There were 38.6 attempts per game for a 157 yards per game average and a total of 16 TDs.
2005: Sophomores Thomas Brown, Danny Ware, Kregg Lumpkin et al combined for 2108 yards on 455 attempts for a 4.63 average. There were 35 attempts per game for a 162 yards per game average and a total of 16 TDs.
2007: Senior Thomas Brown and freshman Knowshon Moreno et al combined for 2304 yards on 509 attempts for a 4.53 average. There were 39 attempts per game for a 177 yards per game average and a total of 32 TDs. Moreno accounted for 1334 yards on 248 attempts for a 5.38 average and 14 TDs. He averaged 19 carries and 103 yards per game.
I expect his yards per carry will edge slightly upward based on three things: (1) Knowshon gained valuable experience in the league last season while splitting the carries and has had the entire off-season to prepare himself to be the work horse, (2) Coach Bobo now has a year of experience calling the plays and has had 8 months to figure out the most productive package for Moreno, and (3) improved production in the passing game leading to more opportunities for play-action. The one thing that mitigates against increased yards per carry in the first several games will be the absence of Brannan Southerland. But, I am confident that the coaching staff has made adequate adjustments to ensure that Moreno will be able to find running room. Accordingly, I expect Knowshon to average at least 5.6 yards per carry. This would translate to an average of 129 yards per game and between 1677 and 1806 yards for the season - depending on whether we play 13 or 14 games.
The one area where I think we will see the biggest jump in his production is TDs. Last year he had 14 of the 32 rushing touchdowns. Brown had 10, Southerland 5, Stafford 2 and Munzenmaier 1. This year, until Southerland returns, the fullbacks will not be getting the call at the goal line. Last year, Thomas Brown had the toughness and desire to fight his way into the endzone. We do not know yet if the current crop of tailbacks behind Moreno have a nose for the goal line like Brown did. I think this means Knowshon will get the ball much more often in the red zone this year compared to last year. I believe that 22 TDs is not an unreasonable number and would not be surprised if he had a few more.
I project that Moreno's best line will look something like this:
1806 yards on 322 attempts for a 5.6 average and 22 TDs.
Combining these projections, we should expect our run:pass ratio to be around 39:28 for the season which is 58% rushing and 42% passing.
Are these stats good enough for eventual Heisman consideration? If the Dawgs are undefeated when the award is handed out at the Downtown Athletic Club, then the answer will be yes. Otherwise, no.
So, what am I missing and what did I get wrong? I would appreciate your input.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
A CLOSER LOOK AT RENNIE CURRAN'S FIRST SEASON :
OJT for the LIBERIAN DREAM
Coming out of Brookwood High School with a zillion tackles, Rennie, at 5'-10" was too short to make the grade at big D-1 schools, right? Not so much! Last season, Rennie learned on the job combining for 50 tackles in the final 8 games of the season after having only 3 tackles in the first 5 games - two in which he did not get on the field. In the final 6 games, he had 42 tackles, averaging 7 per game. That included a 13 tackle performance against Kentucky. Here are his game-by-game statistics according to www.georgiadogs.com.
OK State - 1 assist.
S. Carolina - did not play.
Western Carolina - 2 solo.
Alabama - did not play.
Ole Miss - no tackles.
Tennessee - 5 solo, 2 assists.
Vanderbilt - 1 solo.
Florida - 4 solo, 1 assist. 2 tackles for loss.
Troy - 4 solo, 1 assist. 1 sack.
Auburn - 5 solo, 1 assist. 1 tackle for loss.
Kentucky - 12 solo, 1 assist. 1 tackle for loss.
Ga Tech - 6 solo. 2 tackles for loss.
Hawaii - 5 solo, 2 assists. 2 sacks.
I wish I could find out his total number of plays per game. But, he did start in only 5 games: Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, Ga Tech, Hawaii. When you read comments by Coach Martinez, Coach Richt and other players (see the articles linked below) it is clear that Rennie was playing on talent alone in the beginning as he was trying to learn the defense and where to be on each play. I noticed this in the WCU game. He seemed to be running all over the field but did not necessarily seem to be in the right place all the time. Obviously, he was a fast study, as he earned the starting spot down the stretch and became the most prolific tackler over the final 5 games - edging out Danell Ellerbe by 2 tackles (42 to 40.) More importantly, he seemed to be in the right place most of the time and was extremely disruptive while playing at top speed. That is the one observation that really sticks with me... how fast he plays. Indeed, the USA Today article below comments on this very point... Coach Mark Richt marvels at how much faster the defense looks since Curran got on the field, starting three of the last four games.
Curran has that special quality of being able to explode into a tackle with excellent form and at full speed. Thomas Davis was the last UGA player who made tackles with so much speed. From the ABH article below, we get this quote from Coach Richt, "Rennie Curran has really given us a boost with his ability to play with a lot of instinct and speed and he's a direct hitter," coach Mark Richt said. "You're always looking for a guy that can hit somebody square and knock them back and he's been able to do that."

More from Coach Richt in the USA Today article, "He makes a lot of direct hits, which is why he's such a good tackler," the coach said. "He has that focal point right down the cylinder, and he's able to hit it most of the time because of his speed and instincts. He plays low. He bends his knees well. He stays square to the line of scrimmage. When he's getting ready to make a tackle, his feet are closer than most guys. That's why he rarely misses. And he's strong, really strong." You can get a working knowledge of his strength from watching this video from CES in Atlanta.
Rennie lifting before arriving in Athens. Keep in mind that he was not an early enrollee in 2007.
He showed all of these skills as a true freshman. Now, as a sophomore with much more experience, imagine the possibilities as he plays with speed, aggression and knowledge of the defense. I think we are going to see several double-digit days for Rennie. He has his sights set a little higher... from the ABH article about his high school days... Curran remembers making 24 tackles in a freshman game, a number he thinks he could reach at Georgia.
"I think I can definitely," Curran said.
I like this quote from the ABH article from Coach Van Halanger... "He's the nicest kid in the world," strength and conditioning coach Dave Van Halanger said. "Then you see him on the field and he's like Godzilla."
Here are a few good articles written about Rennie Curran:
ABH before the Sugar Bowl
USA Today before the Tech Game
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
BE NOT AFRAID, BULLDOGS:
NUMBER ONE IS A GOOD THING
By Cale Conley
© 2008
It’s a stat that makes you shake your head: until last week, the Georgia Bulldogs had never been ranked # 1 in any major preseason poll. Not in 1981 as defending national champs, not in 1982 with Herschel back for his Heisman, not ever. Trivia geek alert: the closest the Bulldogs have come was in 1942, when there was no preseason poll but Sinkwich & Trippi’s Dogs were # 2 in the first AP poll of the year.
Since the release of last week’s USA Today Coaches poll putting the Dogs up top, there is of course buzz in the Bulldog Nation, but also a real undercurrent of unease, in fact concern. “It puts too much pressure on us,” I’ve heard uttered. “Now we’ve got a target on our back,” say others. “Only 2 of the last 10 preseason No. 1’s have won it all,” say the aforementioned trivia geeks, who just last year were telling 2007 preseason chart-topper LSU that only 1 of the last 9 teams that started # 1 also finished # 1. LSU, for the uninitiated, is now the defending champion. Score one for the Cajuns.
I’m no Dr. Phil, but I am here to help you cope with being at the preseason pinnacle.
In LSU’s journey of last year lies the explanation why no Bulldog, anywhere, should despair or wish for anything different than the preseason # 1 ranking if, in fact, it is a national title that we want. The reason is simple, but not one many in DawgWorld wish to speak aloud:
Like loaded LSU a year ago, THE 2008 DOGS ARE NOT GOING TO GO UNDEFEATED.
Repeat it with me no matter how much it may pain you, oh sergeant at arms of the Dacula Optimist Club and keeper of the eternal 1980 memorial flame:
THE 2008 DOGS ARE NOT GOING TO GO UNDEFEATED.
If you really think they can, God bless you. I mean really, God bless you. And if they do, at least two things will be clear: (1) it won’t matter what or where we were ranked in the preseason because we had the greatest team since probably Nebraska in 1995 and the talent just took over and we were destined to win it all from the start, like Presbyterians, and (2) my mojo hex of declaring something so vociferously as impossible that it actually comes true has actually worked (and by the way, I am currently Presbyterian, and pray for an undefeated season). But I digress.
The Dogs really won’t go undefeated as bad as we all want to channel 1980 again only because the schedule just won’t let us. Everybody is talking about our “tough schedule” from Lee Corso to the ladies on “The View” (I made that part up), but I haven’t seen any historical research or real data about just how tough it is. For kicks and giggles, I actually did some research, compiled what some may call “data.” But first, an observation.
The SEC is loaded top to bottom, but let’s face it, in the modern era, there are six Hall’s (Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, LSU) and six Oates’ (Ole Miss, Miss State, Kentucky, Vandy and the two teams I’m still not 100% sure are conference members, Arkansas and South Carolina. Could we possibly trade them for Clemson and
Since 1990, only two members of the SEC elite have played and beaten all five of the other members of the conference’s elite in the same year. One was Tennessee, in ’98, which goes down as one of those “Presbyterian-team-of-destiny-wouldn’t-be-denied” kind of things like I was talking about before could happen this year, but won’t (by the way, the Vols’ closest call came at Syracuse, in week one, where they squeaked by 34-33). The other team was Florida, in 1991, in Spurrier’s second year -- before Fulmer and Krispy Kreme kicked in to make Tennessee a power, while pre-Zaxby’s Goff was at our helm, while LSU was suffering from a bad case of Curley Hallman (remember that guy?), and while Pat Dye was still running the power-I at Auburn, just without Bo Jackson or Brent Fullwood. That Gator team swept the then-watered-down other elite and went undefeated in the SEC mainly because Spurrier was offensively about 10 years ahead of his time and had speed before speed was cool, but even that squad did not go undefeated, even in the regular season. Why? Because facing all that other SEC mess, they went on the road, in week three in a hostile out of conference environment (Syracuse), and got bushwhacked pretty badly, 38-21.
Anybody jumping ahead here?
Like the 1991 Gators, the 2008 Dogs face all five of the other elite, including LSU and
But wait, there’s more. Go through that gulag and the SEC Championship awaits, where even if we beat them all the first time we’d have to re-defeat either LSU,
Not to be Debbie Downer, but doesn’t that put a little more meat on the “tough schedule” bone and give you some reason why I resorted to all CAPITAL LETTERS just a few paragraphs ago to proclaim that even the calming influence of Mark Richt and a bevy of talent cannot guide us home unscathed?
Who will we lose to, you ask? I’m bold, but not that bold. I personally think
Rather than speculate, what I’d rather do is get to my point. If you accept my somewhat-historically annotated premise that an undefeated season is probably out of reach despite all best efforts and absent real destiny, then what we are really playing for at this point is “track position” (to borrow a NASCAR phrase) when the inevitable stumble occurs. The rule of track position is get to the front of the pack and into clean air, so that later, when you need to get back into the race after a problem, you have far fewer backs to climb over and some energy left to do it. Fortunately, we find ourselves on the poll from the start (yes, that was a pun. Involving NASCAR. Perhaps a first.).
Does anybody believe that if LSU starts lower than # 1 a year ago that they weather two losses down the stretch and still make it to the title game for the annual SEC whitewash of Overrated, excuse me,
So, from my view, pragmatically, realistically, historically, there is no better position for the Dogs than number 1 preseason at this point in time in the college football universe, if for no reason than it gives us more room to fall softly when a loss occurs. And if we do somehow go undefeated a la
Feel better about being number one? At least I do.
Cale Conley is a UGA graduate and the author of War Between the States: The History of the Georgia-Florida Football Rivalry, originally released in 1992. He is currently working on an update of that book to be released in time for Christmas 2008, so put it on your holiday wish list. When not obsessing about college football, he’s a lawyer in
Tuesday, August 05, 2008

IF YOU AREN'T THE LEAD DAWG,
THE VIEW NEVER CHANGES
A few thoughts going into the first week of practice...
Pre-Season Ranking: So we are Number 1 in the Coaches Poll and on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Bullseye, jinx, big head, blah blah blah. While I think pre-season polls are as close to useless as a one-legged man at an ass kicking contest, it is better to be number one than any of the other integers. I embrace it and hope that the coaches and players can keep it in proper perspective as they prepare for the first couple of games of the season. Let's be honest, we all have the highest expectations for our team this season and whether we are currently ranked 1, 2, 3 , 4 or 5 is mostly inconsequential at this point. We know that out of the top 6 teams, no more than two of them can be undefeated by the end of the SECCG. Still, it is best that we are in a position that we can completely control our own destiny from day one. Embrace it. Own it. Prove it.
Off The Field Issues: I am done with them. As Rafiki says in The Lion King, "It's in the past." Practices have started. These kids now have no more idle time to find trouble. As Matthew Stafford admonished the team Sunday... it is time to focus on football.
Pre-Season All SEC Team: Even more so than pre-season polls, this is a total exercise in futility. However, it will be interesting to go back after the season and see who the surprises were. I firmly believe that Rennie Curran will finish higher than the third team. I can't wait to watch this missile play defense this season.
Rennie improved dramatically throughout his freshman season to the point where he was making more plays than any other defender by the end of the year. He could average double digits in tackles this season and many of those will be tackles for losses. He has the nose for the football and is our next great one like Hoage, Champ, Boss, Pollack, etc.
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Here is an important service announcement... I know this is a great event for a great cause. Attend if you are able and have a great time.
This is a charity event hosted by David Greene and Jon and Matt Stinchcomb and sponsored by Synovus Bank. It will be fun for the entire family.
UGA Countdown to Kickoff
Go Dawgs!
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
To join the 1990 Diamond Dawgs (pictured here) ...2008 DAWGS Need a Short Memory Tonight
Moreau needs to give us three good innings. He will have to throw his curve for strikes because those guys will crush his not-so-fastball if it is across the plate. Mendonca should NOT see another fastball under any circumstances. He looks worse than Andruw Jones flagging at curve balls, but groove a fast ball and you better have a flight attendant onboard – going to be a long trip. Both Mendonca and Susdorf are left-handed hitters and Moreau’s curve ball could slow down their bats if it is thrown for strikes. Can’t fall behind in the count against those two (or any of their hitters for that matter.) And for God’s sake, do not walk the nine hole every time tonight.
Weaver has thrown 4 and 2/3 innings allowing 7 hits, 4 runs, 0 walks, 2 Ks. He’s a righty, so he will not have an advantage against their two biggest bats, but if he can continue to not allow any walks, he should be able to limit base runners and thereby reduce the chances for more monster innings from their obviously corked bats.
In a perfect world, I would prefer that Joshua Fields remain a spectator tonight because we are two touchdowns ahead of them in the ninth. But, I wonder if he can be effective for 6 outs? If so, we will need McRee and/or Weaver to give us less than 3 innings apiece – assuming Moreau gets through no less than three innings. Ideally, Moreau would get us through the 4th without allowing more than 2 or 3 runs. Then McRee gets us through the 6th and possibly the 7th. Weaver gets us through the 8th and hopefully they have been limited to 6 runs or less. Then we can hand the ball to Fields for the 9th. If all goes according to plan, we won’t be batting in the bottom of the 9th.
Their bullpen... any live arms remaining? Seems like if we can get to The Cajun Cook, Justin Wilson, early and often we could be the team putting up a football score tonight.
Sprague and Hower each threw 3 innings last night and Sprague threw an inning Sat. and an inning Sun. I think those two are probably done.
Miller and Allison are also probably both done, but Allison, who pitched 6 against UNC Sun. may be available.
That leaves Bonesteele (3 on Mon), Breckley (2 on Mon), Tomlinson (1.1 Mon), Floethe (0.2 Mon) and Burke (2 on Sun and 1 on Mon). Other than Burke, those are all 6+ ERA guys - not that that seemed to matter much at times on Monday night. But, I still think that if we can get their starter off the hill, we can rough them up sufficiently to bring home the hardware. It may take double digit runs, but our Dawgs are plenty capable. Regional Final vs GT = 18-6; Super Regional Final vs NC State = 17-8. In fact, in our 5 elimination games thus far this post-season, we have outscored the bad guys 66 to 25. That is an average of 13.2 runs per game for our Dawgs and 5 runs per game for the other guys. How about one more football score for our Dawgs tonight!
If FSU musters more than a dozen again, then we will be talking football by midnight tonight.
Monday, June 23, 2008

Rich Poythress scoring the tying run in the bottom of the 8th inning.
IT WAS THE WINE!
Throughout the first game of the College World Series Championship tonight, I could not get any rhythm going with my various superstitions. No matter what I tried, we kept swinging at the first pitch and bouncing balls on the infield or popping up to the shallow outfield. There were moments when I thought I had found the combination, but then Fresno State would nullify any gains achieved. Finally after sitting in three different locations, after Fresno scored three in the top of the 8th to take a 6-3 lead, with my nerves frayed, I did something I should have done much earlier. I poured a glass of wine. For good measure, I also changed my shirt. I ditched the shirt that got us through the Miami game and replaced it with the shirt that I wore during the first Stanford game - which is an 11 year old gray Polo tee shirt that I wear to sleep.
The superstitious delicious wine of choice was 2005 Evil Chardonnay from Australia - 90 points from Wine Advocate. If you are wondering why it took me so long to think about turning to alcohol, your point is well taken. But, I was at my son's baseball game and did not get home to watch the UGA game until the bottom of the 4th inning. Then I was eating dinner and had kids running around the house for about an hour and it just slipped my mind that I had a nice glass of wine left in a bottle that did not get finished Saturday night. Once this oversight was remedied, the Dawgs rallied for 4 runs and took the lead 7-6 going into the ninth. Joshua Fields then came to the hill and mowed down the feisty and dangerous FSU hitters 1-2-3.
Now the Dawgs are one win away from a second National Title in baseball in what has been a tremendously fun post-season. However, this is baseball and the other resilient Bulldogs are sure to put up another fight tomorrow night. Our guys will have to remain focused and hopefully play a little looser than they did tonight.
My son also has another game tomorrow night at 6:45, so I will again miss the first 3 innings or so. But, when I do get home, you can be assured that I will waste no time in pouring that glass of wine!
Go Dawgs, GATA.