Jody's OSU Preview

Jody has now posted his OSU Preview. Thorough analysis game after game, year after year. Check it out every week.

Pulpwood On Okie State

He is baaaaaacccckkkkk!!!!!

Pulpwood!

Okie State Game

MY FIRST ROUND OF THOUGHTS ON THE OKIE STATE GAME

Discipline on defense will be the key. Two years ago, we disrupted OSU’s entire offense by bringing unrelenting heat on QB Bobby Reid. Saturday, we must get pressure on Zac Robinson, but we cannot allow him to escape contain and beat us with his feet. We also must be aware of screens and shuttle passes to Hunter so that an aggressive pass rush doesn’t get exploited to our detriment.

Against the run… well they won’t gain a yard in the middle, but when Hunter tries to get to the corner, we cannot over-pursue or swing and miss like we did against the Tech backs last December. Hunter has the speed and balance to make us pay if he can turn the corner.

These are my main concerns.

I feel like our offense will move the ball with a balance of 67% runs and 33% passes which will help control the clock and keep their offense off the field. The key for our offense will be turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns instead of field goals (no offense Rex.) If we do that, we will be fine.

GATA!

Who Will Be the Dawgs' Sack Leader in 2009???

If Speed Kills, Then Sacks at Least Maim and Torture

Last August, I posed this same question in this post. My projections for the 2009 Sack leaders were :

"Lomax will lead the team with 8.5 sacks and Atkins will be second with 7 sacks. Houston will contribute 6 as a back up."

But what had happened was that our defensive ends stayed hurt all year and production was abysmal. Lomax had half a sack, Atkins had zero sacks (unbelievable - though he did have 7.5 tackles for loss) and Houston had only 2.5 sacks. The team only registered 24 sacks - down from 42 in 2007. The leaders were:
Curran - 3
Irvin - 3
Wynn - 3
Houston - 2.5
Dobbs - 2.0
Ellerbe - 2.0

Last year I determined that it would be a puzzle to project how the sacks would turn out and it unfortunately was. It is a puzzle again this year, but I will make a bold attempt to predict who, if anyone, will give opposing QBs fits.

I think the clear preseason favorite would be Justin Houston. Especially if he wasn't going to miss the first two games. Demarcus Dobbs, Rod Battle and Marcus Washington will be the other ends getting the most reps. I want to put Geno Atkins in the mix again for 2009 now that he will have Jeff Owens back. Atkins went from 7.5 sacks in 2007 to zero in 2008. I think he will get back to his old ways this season. It is difficult to project which linebackers will have the most sacks but undoubtedly Curran, Gamble, Dewberry, Dent and Dowtin will have chances. So those are the candidates. Rod Battle had a strong Spring and preseason and appears to be at full strength to start the season. While working through injuries all season last year, Battle was only able to muster half a sack. This year will be different for him and the team.

Our annual sack production in recent years is as follows:

2008 Curran, Irvin, Wynn - 3 each (Team - 24)
2007 Marcus Howard - 11.5 (Team - 42)
2006 Charles Johnson - 9.5 (Team - 33)
2005 Quentin Moses - 11.5 (Team - 34)
2004 David Pollack - 12.5 (Team - 37)
2003 David Pollack - 7.5 (Team - 30)
2002 David Pollack - 14 (Team - 45)

Assuming we get back to at least an average year in the sack department, I believe 35 sacks is not unreasonable. However, we don't necessarily have a sack specialist like most of the leaders in years past. So, if we are to achieve these kind of numbers in 2009, it will be spread widely among many players. Accordingly, here are my projections:


Houston - 7
Battle - 5
Washington - 4
Atkins - 4
Dobbs - 4
Curran - 3
Dent - 3
And 5 more sacks coming from the field at large.

What do you think? Who will lead the way? Can we get back to 35 or more sacks in 2009?

HDD Getting all Tweety

I have just created a Twitter account under my name here: hamptanner

I will be tweeting from Stillwater in less than 5 days! Follow me if you dare.

JOE COX OUTLOOK

HOW WILL JOE COX PERFORM AT THE HELM?



Five Things We Know:

• Knows the playbook as well as any quarterback we have had or will have.
• Has an accurate arm, though not nearly the rifle of Stafford.
• Is well-respected by his teammates.
• Has the most experienced OL we have had in years.
• Knows this is his last year of football and has paid his dues.

Five Things We Do Not Know:

• How well he will read defenses prior to the snap.
• How well he will react to the speed of the game after the snap.
• Will he be able to stretch defenses by connecting on a few long-ish balls to Green or King?
  
• How well he will be able to elude the rush or tuck the ball and run.
  
• How will he respond to adversity within a game?

I am confident that his knowledge of the offense/playbook will allow him to read defenses and make appropriate checks at the line of scrimmage. However, I think the speed of the game will be challenging at first and will take him a few complete games to become comfortable.

Though he doesn't have the arm strength of Stafford, I hope that his awareness of this will keep him from trying to force balls into coverage - which plagued Stafford at times. From Cox, I will be content to see lots of short, high-percentage passes to playmakers who can do something once they get the ball in their hands. In other words, not all 40+ yard pass plays need result from balls traveling this distance purely through the air. (For examples, see Montana, Joe - Rice, Jerry.) When Mike Bobo replaced Eric Zeier, the offensive passing scheme was designed around his strength, which was quick-hitting short routes. In 1997, this strategy allowed Bobo to complete 65% of his passes for 2751 yards and an efficiency rating of 155.8. Against Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl, Bobo was an amazing 26 of 28 for 267 yards. Physically, I see no reason that Cox's arm could not be deployed in a similar fashion and I am hopeful that Cox will enjoy similar success with his talented corps of receivers - Green, King, Moore, Brown, White, Charles and Chapas and probably Carlton Thomas.

I have no idea if he will have the knack to evade rushers like Stafford did. Nor do I know if Cox could have success on designed runs - which was hit and miss with Stafford. But, we know that Logan Gray is a QB we will use on occasion to run draws and other dual-threat packages. So, I don't expect much running from Cox and will be pleasantly surprised if he breaks off a few decent runs in the first few games.

As far as adversity goes, Cox came in and saved our hides against Colorado in 1996 by throwing two TDs in the fourth quarter. But, he came off the bench in that situation. We will have to see how he responds when something goes awry in a game in which he has all of the responsibility from start to finish. I believe that his maturity and leadership ability will help him to remain calm and composed during times of adversity, but this remains to be seen until he is in the fire. If we are fortunate, he will be like the coolest customer we ever had under center - David Greene.

We don't need Joe Cox to be a hero. We only need him to be steady and to avoid crucial mistakes. I think the fact that he will have a talented, veteran offensive line in front of him will be a huge advantage that recent UGA QBs have not had and may make all the difference for Joe.

Here is something to consider... in 2001, freshman starter David Greene threw 27 times per game; in 2005, first year starter - senior DJ Shockley threw 28 times per game; and in 2006, our QBs (Stafford, Tereshinki and Cox) threw 26 times per game. I suppose we can assume that our QBs will throw the ball at least 25 times per game. This won't be like GT and Josh Nesbitt. We will be throwing the ball. It will be imperative that our QBs can get the ball in our receivers hands. Richt's offenses thrive when balanced, so passing the ball effectively must happen for us to be successful.

What do you guys look for from Joe this season?

GO JOE, GATA!

Pulpwood in the River

Pulpwood Smith - Dunked in the Satilla River

On Sunday, August 23rd, 2009, Andre "Pulpwood" Smith was baptized in the Satilla River near Douglas, GA. The Baptism was performed by Pastor Marty Wilkes of the Crossroads Baptist Church in Douglas. The following photos were taken by Anne Marie Hanna Fussell.



Love the high-five! Way to go Pulpwood. God Bless You buddy!

A New Season: Under the Radar and I Like it This Way!

This time last year, the preseason #1 ranking and related media hype was unraveling upon the news of Trinton Sturdivant's injury. Almost immediately upon learning of the loss of Sturdivant for the season, Mark May celebrated and announced that UGA's 2008 quest for the National Title was done. He would be correct, a rarity, but for a lot more reasons than the injury to our starting left tackle. It was, arguably, more the lack of healthy and productive defensive ends throughout the season that derailed our chances to win the SEC East or more. The Dawgs were quickly bounced from the top two spots in the polls for not beating Georgia Southern by 60 points - and the loss of defensive team leader, Jeff Owens, for the season on the third play of the game. The season of so much promise quickly devolved into the anathema of modern UGA football. Sure we had 10 wins. But the 3 losses were all painful and embarrassing and continue to serve as a reminder of why our love affair with the red and black is equal parts joy, pain and madness.

Now we gear up for another season with a chance to experience euphoric highs, suicidal lows and everything in between. This pre-season our team has not been wreathed with the albatross of a stratospheric ranking and I like it this way!

This season is all upside. While I know we will win at least 10 games - because it's what we do - I honestly enjoy that we are underdogs as we prepare to open on the road in the debut of T. Boone's Shrine against the reportedly unstoppable offensive juggernaut that is Oklahoma State. I love that we are being underestimated. The burden of expectation is light as a result. The reports from the off-season and camp have indicated that this group has galvanized into a "team" with more focus and exponentially less distractions than we had one year ago. While we have the need for players to step up at QB, RB and CB, our trenches are in great shape right now and that reminds me of a wise Naval saying from John Paul Jones... "Men mean more than guns in the rating of a ship." In my view, in the rating of a team, look to the trenches. If you have a solid core of big nasty lineman willing to bust ass for little recognition, then your skill players will all look better. In Athens, it is our strength this season with defensive pillars like Jeff Owens, Geno Atkins, Kade Weston, DeAngelo Tyson, Demarcus Dobbs, a healthy Rod Battle and an unsuspended Justin Houston and offensive road pavers like Clint Boling, Trinton Sturdivant, Ben Jones, Cordy Glenn, Bean Anderson, Chris Davis, Tanner Strickland and Vince Vance. There are even more capable back ups that I didn't name. If this was the eighties, Wendy's founder Dave Thomas would not ask "Where's the beef?" when evaluating the 2009 installment of UGA football. We have veterans upon of veterans in the trenches and I like it this way!

We start the season with a "real" game against a highly ranked opponent instead of brave-but-overmatched1-AA (can I still use that?) team or a middling 1-A program with an enigmatic mascot. For whatever reason, our teams have historically had much higher focus and intensity in seasons in which we open with a quality opponent (Clemson, Boise State, Oklahoma State.) A big win early on the national stage is exactly our team needs to set the tone for this season and I like it this way!

We have receivers and tight ends that our opponents have never heard of who will have great seasons by making teams pay for doubling AJ Green. I am talking about Tavares King, Michael Moore, Marlon Brown, Rantavious Wooten, Israel Troupe, Aron White, Orson Charles, Arthur Lynch and Bruce Figgins (when he returns.) When they don't double team AJ Green, he will make them pay and I like it this way!

As usual, we have a stud fullback to pancake unsuspecting defenders while paving the way for a stable of young capable tailbacks. In addition, Shaun Chapas has the best hands of any fullback we have had since Verron Haynes, and I like it this way!

We have about fiftyleven linebackers with significant game experience - Gamble, Dewberry, Dent, Dowtin and Washington (though he may play end exclusively). Then there is the heart of this team personified wearing #35 tackling everything on the field not carrying pom poms. When you have Rennie Curran, you have a chance of stopping any team... and I like it this way!

So, instead of dwelling on the departures of Stafford, Moreno, Massaquoi and Allen, I prefer to look at the huge upside of returning the tremendous core of veterans that may be the most experienced group on both lines of scrimmage since Dooley danced in red pants. And I like it this way!

After a long, long quiet off-season, bereft of barking on Saturdays, 32 ounce gin and tonics, beautiful coeds by the busload, and 93,000 of my closest friends... I am ready for Continental Airlines and Avis to get my ass out to Stillwater in exactly ten days so I can watch my Dawgs Get After Their Asses in exactly 11 days. And I like it this way!!!

Hunker Down Dawg, reporting for duty Sir!

Gators will win it easily

Going on record with this prediction:
Gators 45 - Oklahoma 28

It is what it is.

DAWGS CAPITOL ONE BOWL PREDICITION

DAWGS WIN IT 44 - 28.

Happy New Year.

DAWGS and HAPPY NEW YEAR!

HAPPY NEW YEAR DAWGS!

I have been busy doing other things - like taking care of Christmas for my kids - which was awesome! Santa brought us a Wii. I jacked a homer (in practice) 623 feet just like I used to back in the day. Hampton, my 5 year old, has beaten me regularly in baseball and boxing. He won't let me throw junk when I am pitching. He says, "Daddy, you don't push any buttons because then I can't hit it." Then he turns around and strikes out my side like old Jack Morris in the 1991 World Series throwing a devastating splitter at 86 mph twice in a row then crossing me up with a 65 mph change up. I could have swung twice I was so far out front. Crafty little sneak. So far, I have handled him in tennis, but he holds the household record in bowling with a 182.

Anyway, we have had fun the past few weeks and quite frankly, I haven't paid a ton of attention to UGA related football news. I have enjoyed many of the bowl games, but not the outcome of the Navy-Wake game.

I am getting killed in my Footie Picker Bowl Picks against the spread - which is par for the course this season. But, I am still looking okay in my confidence pool. I've got a ton of points still out on the field. But, last night, I almost lost my 34 point game when Missouri needed OT to put away Northwestern. I will post both of my Bowl pool selections later just for reference.

Based on the match ups in the bowls this year, I think the SEC will not look too good (maybe because the SEC is not very good after the top 3 or 4 teams anyway). The Big East and the Pac Ten will look like heroes while the Big 12 and ACC come out looking pretty good. To me, it looks like the SEC will go 5-3 at best, but I have it picked to go 4-4. Here is how I have picked the other majors: Big East 5-1; Pac 10 4-1; Big 12 5-2 (but I am concerned about OSU tonight); ACC 5-5 is how I picked it but they may end up 7-3.

I will be back tomorrow for my Dawgs prediction. For tonight, let's go Pokes.

IMPORTANT PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

Please view this brief film about gun safety. This could help save your life!



True.

MUMME POLL after 12/06 Weekend

My Mumme Poll Ballot following the weekend of 12/06- Until further notice.

Top 5 - No particular order:

Alabama - Got Tebowed
Florida - Tebow is keeping his promise
Texas - Had to suck for them on Saturday night
Oklahoma - Ain't scoring 60 on Florida
USC - Bored

Next 7 - no particular order:

Penn State - Not bored
Texas Tech - What a year
Utah - Gets a shot to prove it against Alabama
Ohio State - Rubber match with Texas
Boise State - Chance to be perfect against the Frogs
Cincinnati - Won't surprise me if they beat VPI
Oklahoma State - Making plans to be at the Boone for Labor Day

ALABAMA vs FLORIDA

The thud from this game will be heard from Atlanta to Norman to Austin and South Central. And when the dust settles, the winner will not be the flashy, pretty, ESPN darlings. No, the workmanlike Alabama Crimson Tide will emerge victorious on the strength of the two things that matter most in all football contests: great defense and dominating offensive line play.

First, my prediction is predicated on Percy Harvin being out. He is the Reggie Bush of 2008. Having him on the field is like having two extra weapons that are both indefensible. I doubt he will play, and if he does I think he will be severely limited due to the high ankle sprain. As a result, the Florida offense loses it most lethal weapon and that tilts the scale in favor of Alabama in my opinion.

Here is how Bama rolls in Atlanta. First, the best offensive line in the country will establish control of the line of scrimmage by hitting the Gator defense in the mouth extremely hard early and often. Alabama will work the ball down the field methodically and efficiently. Watch for them to get 5 yards or more on first down. When they do that, they will get a first down almost every time. They will run the ball 70-75% of the time with two great backs - Coffey and Ingram. They will ask John Peter Piper Picked a Peck of Parker Wilson to throw high percentage passes with an occasional deep route for good measure. The key is for Bama to not turn the ball over. If they protect the ball, they will have possession for about 36 minutes, which will give them a 12 minute advantage over the Gator offense.

Assuming Harvin cannot contribute, Alabama has a much easier time gameplanning against this Gator offense that has been so amazing for the past number of weeks. First, the Gators will not be able to run inside on Mount Cody, so it will be up to the ends and LBs to make sure that Rainey or Demps does not get turned upfield at full speed. Even Georgia was able to stop these two guys by penetrating and making them run horizontally. Bama has much better talent at the edge than UGA, so they should be able to handle this. Next, they have to contain Tebow when he wants to run. This will be their toughest assignment and Tebow will make some plays to extend drives and score points. Lastly, Bama needs to force Tebow into passing situations and challenge him to beat them with his arm. Bama needs to account for Louis Murphy and the tight end. The other guys will not kill them. It really hurts Florida to be without Harvin and this will bite them on obvious passing downs.

Finally, Alabama cannot allow UF to block a punt. Sure, Brandon James is a threat to break a long one. But, so is Javier Arenas for Alabama. Both average right at 14.66 yards per return and both ahve 2 touchdowns. I call that a push.

This game will feature the two best coaches in college football in terms of scheme and game preparation. Urban's offense against Saban's defense. Since I always have and always will preach that defense wins championships, I am picking Bama to win 27 - 24.

Note: Yes I understand that Florida has a great defense and Charlie Strong should get a HC job somewhere, but I think Bama's defense caught a huge break when Harvin got hurt and that, to me, makes the difference in this close game. Of course, I could be wrong - it won't be the first time! Just read a few of my posts from the week of Halloween or Thanksgiving for proof.

Anyway... GO NAVY, BEAT ARMY!

UPDATE***
Florida played a near-perfect game. Very impressive the way other receivers stepped up in the absence of Harvin. Tebow should be the Heisman winner! He is an amazing competitor. The FLorida defense, Spikes in particular, shut Bama down in the 4th quarter and Tebow did the rest. Well done Gators.

GO NAVY, BEAT ARMY!!!

It's that time of year again. The ONE game that matters most for Navy and Army. Because Navy beat Air Force and Air Force beat Army, Navy has already secured retention of the Commander In Chiefs trophy for the 6th consecutive year.

Navy now leads the series 52-49-7 on the strength of an ongoing series record 6 consecutive wins (all with Paul Johnson was at the helm.) Navy enters the game with a 7-4 record while Army is at 3-8. Navy should win again, but Army has played several good games this season along with some stinkers. Navy is a 10 or 10.5 point favorite. I picked Navy to cover, but I would not bet on it. Still, I predict Navy 33 - Army 20.

Ooooh, Aaaah, Whitewash the Black Knights!

From the Armchair

The Tech Loss – A Few Comments

I know this is old news now, but I just didn’t feel like writing much about this for a couple of days.

1. Again, Mohamed Massaquoi played like a warrior with the heart of a lion. He is, without question, my favorite player on this offense. I hate that his amazing performance was squandered by our Keystone Cops defense. I hope to see Mo Mass having a rewarding NFL career. I think he has the work ethic and heart to contribute to any franchise in the league.

2. My favorite player on defense is, of course, Rennie Curran. For the 5th time this season, Curran recorded double digit tackles and ended the regular season with 109. It is curious that both of these standouts are one generation removed from Liberia.

3. I have to also give a ton of credit to Stafford, Moreno, Green, Chapas and the entire offense for scoring 42 points. That should have been enough to win. Even Chandler, Harris and Moore made big plays.

4. The number one reason that we gave up 409 yards rushing was the terrible kickoff team and the average starting field position for Ga. Tech. Otherwise, Tech would have rushed for well over 500 yards. Twice, Roddy could have run to Bogart without being touched – unless you count shoulder nudges.

5. My key to the game was to punish Nesbitt. That didn’t happen. He could hit hard twice and had to leave the field one of those times. However, he was not holding the ball long on the option. Once it became clear that we weren’t going to cover the pitch man anyway, why should he sell out the option and take hits anyway?

6. Tech is running the Paul Johnson offense well right now, but it can be run better. That is scary. In the game Saturday, as noted in the previous point, Nesbitt didn’t have to make anyone commit before he pitched the ball. They were able to gobble up all those yards without taking a defender out of the play by forcing him to commit to the man who will not have the ball. This offense gets even scarier when the QB comes down the line and you actually have defenders in position to make the play, but fearless execution at the edge causes you to not make the play. For examples of this type of QB play, try to find film of Chris McCoy or Brian Madden when they ran this offense at Navy. Saturday, Nesbitt did not run the option as well as it can be run and that may have been by design because of his injuries.

7. Rennie, you know I love you, but this must be said… On two of the long touchdown runs, Rennie Curran and another defender both over-pursued and allowed the Tech back to cut back inside them and then bounce off the safety shoulder nudge and off to the races. There is a lot to be said for flying around the field, but when a team runs an option into the boundary, you have to use the boundary and defend it from the inside out. (Actually, one of these runs was a toss sweep to the motion man so it wasn’t technically an option play.) Rennie was out there quick enough to stop the play, but he overran it both times. I think both of these plays were on 3rd and 6 – which was a good position to be in for our defense, but we just failed. I am sure Rennie feels worse about it than we do. GATA Rennie.

MUMME POLL after 11/29 Weekend

My Mumme Poll Ballot following the weekend of 11/29 - Clear as mud.

Top 5 - No particular order:

Alabama - Rolling, so to speak
Florida - Facing Alabama without Harvin - yikes
Texas - I would place them ahead of OU
Oklahoma - Getting the BCS love again
USC - stuck in the Rose Bowl again

Next 7 - no particular order:

Penn State - A significant season for the ageless Jo Pa
Texas Tech - Escaping at Baylor
Utah - BCS bound
Ohio State - Got the help they needed from Oregon
Boise State - Please play Ball State in a Bowl
Cincinnati - Solid season
Ball State - What the hell, they were perfect.

Back Up A Brinks Truck to Dick Bumpas's House?

Not that UGA is looking for a new DC, but hypothetically, if they were, TCU's Dick Bumpas is one of the best defensive coordinators in the country. A finalist for the Broyles Award, he has the 2nd ranked defense in 2008 and had the 2nd ranked defense in 2006 in the scoring happy Mountain West Conference with Utah and BYU.

If you want a shiny new DC, this wouldn't be a bad place to look. Read more about Bumpas here and here. One little nugget that would make you smile... in 1996, as Navy's DC, the middies beat Ga. Tech at the Joke. Unfortunately, I think PJ was the OC for that Navy team.

Bumpas is not a newbie and he sure as hell knows what he is doing. There is some speculation that TCU HC Gary Patterson is the brains behind the TCU defense, but I am not sure. Bumpas was his mentor before Patterson became a HC. I don't know much about Bumpas personally - whether he would fit in with Coach Richt's staff, etc - but he has put some great defenses on the field in his career.

TEXAS - Bend Over, Here It Comes Again

This year, Texas gets hit with the BOHICA banana. In my opinion, Texas got a royal buggering by the BCS formula. But, perhaps that is the fault of Big 12 officials allowing the BCS formula to dictate the tie-breaker. If the analysis came down to picking Oklahoma or Texas, then I believe Texas irrefutably deserved to represent the Big 12 South in the Big 12 Championship Game. Why? Simple. In a game in which we all believe the regular season games are sacrosanct and mean more than regular season games in any other sport on the planet, not using Texas's 10 point victory over Oklahoma on a neutral field to elevate them above Oklahoma is utter horseshit. Yes, I know that Texas Tech throws a wrinkle into this, but they are far enough behind these two teams in all of the rankings that the inquiry boils down to OU and UT. UT beat OU by 10 points on a neutral field with both teams at full strength. WTF? To paraphrase what Colonel Jessep said in "A Few Good Men" - "You just weakened college football today."

Sorry Longhorns. You got totally screwed.

How Depressing

To me, losing to Tech yesterday was more depressing than maddening. If losing to them once in 8 years is this depressing, I can't imagine how Tech felt for the past several years. Nor do I wish to learn. Better get some defense Coach Richt or we might find out.

Too depressed to look for the energy to write what I think should be done about our serious problems on defense and special teams. Maybe later.