Chink #1: Can Knowshon Run on the Gators Again?

Possible Chinks #1:

1. UF run defense may have trouble with Knowshon again. I saw the little back from Arkansas run the ball well against them, but I think they stopped Charles Scott. So, what can we expect?

Here is what I discovered digging into the numbers: Florida's improved 2008 defense is allowing 3.36 yards per carry this season. Their porous and youthful 2007 defense from a year ago allowed a whopping 3.0 yards per carry. Hmmm. Apparently, their run defense is not improved at all. They did have a monster day in stopping LSU's Charles Scott, holding him to a 2.9 ypc on 12 carries.

Here are the notable rushing performances against the Gators this season:
Arkansas: Team had a 5.64 ypc in the game but is only 3.98 ypc for the season. RB Michael Smith (5-7, 173lbs) went 20/133 for a 6.7 ypc.

Kentucky: Team had a 4.27 ypc in the game but is only 3.97 ypc for the season. It was running back by committee for the Cats.

Ole Miss: Team had a 3.68 ypc in the game and has a 4.44 ypc for the season.
McCluster (5-8, 165lbs) went 11/60 for a 5.5 ypc. and Bolden (5-11, 220lbs) went 13/55 and a 4.2 ypc.

The Gator run defense had their most impressive games against LSU (3.08 ypc for the game with a 4.91 ypc for the season) and Miami (1.65 ypc for the game and a 3.98 ypc for the season.)

Of the 7 games Florida has played, they have allowed only 2 teams to attain a higher ypc against the Gators than they have averaged on the season (Ark. and UK.) Those are two of the last three opponents. However, you have to include the whopper of a performance against LSU in the past three outings as well.

Coming into this game, as a team, UGA is averaging 4.95 yards per carry. Knowshon is averaging 6.2 ypc and averaging almost 19 carries per game (this includes only 8 carries against GSU and 9 carries against Alabama.)

WHAT TO EXPECT?

Last year, UGA entered the game with a 4.53 ypc and had 4.45 ypc in the game. Knowshon was 33/188 for 5.7 ypc. I don't think we should expect to have a better performance against Florida than we have averaged on the season, which is 173 yards per game. But, I also don't see any reason that we can't come close to our average performance either. My guess is that we will rush for somewhere between 150 and 175 yards in this game on about 35-40 attempts. We should average at least 4.5 yards per carry. To do that, Knowshon would need to average more than 5 ypc. All season long, I have posited that the magic number for Knowshon is at least 23 carries. He had only 21 against LSU, but I still say 23 is the magic number for a UGA win. If he has 23 carries with a 5.0 ypc, that will be 115 yards. If he has 33, like last year, that would be 165 yards.

We will have to take whatever their defense will give us. If they commit to stop the run and we can still have some success running, then everything else should work. If they stack the box like LSU did and we can make great blocks at the point of attack (like we did in Baton Rouge), then Knowshon will get into the secondary with some space. If they stack the box, it will make it easier for Stafford to throw to our tall receivers. What was a key in our rushing attack against LSU, was that they would commit safeties to stop Knowshon but we often ran the opposite way from where they sold out - which resulted in big plays. Same thing on a few of the long passes.

I think that having seen that, Florida will not sell out their safeties like LSU did. They will play us straight up with a few blitzes early to see how we are responding. We need to be able to establish the run early on so we can utilize play-action passing. This means our O-line will have to be up to the task on the opening drive like they were last year. They will need to recognize blitzes (Stafford too) and work us into good down and distance situations in the first quarter. Down and distance killed us in the first half against Bama. We have been much better since.

To answer the original question posed... I think Knowshon will have a good day running, but maybe not a great day. I will be shocked if they can shut him down completely without exposing themselves to a heavy dose of Stafford to Green/Massaquoi/Durham/Harris et. al. For Knowshon to have a great day, our O-line will have to play their best game of the year so far.

Can we win if Knowshon only has a "good" day - like 115 yards rushing? That will depend on the answers to the questions raised in points #2 through 4. Stand by.

CHINKS in GATOR ARMOR

Clearly the Gators have got their offense in high gear and their defense seems measurably improved from last season. They have speed all over the field and they are operating with a high level of confidence. So, I am wondering... what are the chinks in the Gator armor? I have a few preconceived notions and I will look into their statistics to see if any of these areas indeed appear to be potential weaknesses that could offer us some advantage. For now, I am going to list each possible chink and over the next couple of days, I will offer any relevant analysis based on their performance (and ours) leading into the WLOCP.

Possible Chinks:

1. UF run defense may have trouble with Knowshon again. I saw the little back from Arkansas run the ball well against them, but I think they stopped Charles Scott. So, what can we expect?

2. UF pass defense has not faced a quality, experienced quarterback this season. If this is true, how have they fared against the QBs they have faced? I recall that Jevon Snead made a few plays on them, but I don't know if any other QB has had any success at all. So, which QBs have they faced and how will they fare against our passing attack?

3. Can they get to the QB with a 3 or 4 man rush? Our O-line continues to improve, but we can we expect from the Gators pass rush?

4. How will their DBs match up with our tall receivers?

5. Can we sack Tebow again?

These are the 5 areas that seem like opportunites for us to take advantage. I will look into each over the next couple of days. I know we have some chinks in our armor, but that is not the point of this inquiry.

MUMME POLL after Weekend 10/25

My Mumme Poll Ballot following the weekend of 10/25 - some changes are afoot...

Top 5 - No particular order:
Texas
Alabama
Penn State (who will beat them now?)
Florida (next week, this spot will belong to the winner of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party)
Texas Tech (taking the place of Okie State and will either fall out after this coming Saturday or will prove they belong)

Next 7 - no particular order:
Georgia (I could have put them in the Top 5 instead of Texas Tech, but I gave the Raiders the benefit this week for still being undefeated. This will sort itself out in about 4 days. FWIW, I believe the Dawgs belong ahead of USC and Oklahoma.)
USC
Oklahoma
Utah
TCU
OK State (Close, but no cigar. Still good enough to stay in the Top 12.)
Boise State (holding my nose here because I doubt a WAC team can beat any of these teams just outside this second group such as: FSU, Ohio State, LSU or even Tulsa.)

I really wish there was a way to sort out Boise State, but they have a weak schedule all the way. TCU and Utah will prove it on the field in two weeks. I think FSU can jump ahead of Boise if they can beat Tech convincingly this week.

Go DAWGS!

DAWGS CRUISE TO BIG WIN IN BATON ROUGE

GEORGIA rolled up 52 Points in Death Valley and snapped LSU's 30 game home winning streak. Huge games were turned in by Darryl Gamble, Knowshon Moreno, Matthew Stafford and AJ Green. The offensive line had a solid game against a veteran front and the defensive ends were much more active than we have seen in most games this season.

(I did not catch these two reds, but no one else wanted to hold them for the picture.)

We had a great trip to New Orleans. Thanks to Kent Morrison and his family for hosting us for a fun day of trout and redfish fishing on Friday. On gameday, we had an entertaining bus ride to BR thanks to Andrew Rothschild and his hilarious impersonations. The game itself was shocking from the standpoint of how many big plays we were able to produce. To win in Death Valley and to make it look almost easy was completely unexpected. Our defense tackled poorly and gave up too many big plays. But, the offense (and Darryl Gamble) were up to the task to outrun LSU in this horse race.

Our bus ride back to New Orleans was a celebration as Rothschild again entertained and made our sides hurt. It was a terrific road trip, but we are glad to be home.

Now, all eyes turn to Jacksonville and the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Obviously, we here at Amelia Island enjoy this week and weekend as much as any other week of the year. It is always exciting to watch all the Dawg fans rolling into town with their flags flying as early as Monday. By Thursday, a drive down Fletcher Avenue along the beach, you will see big Georgia banners hanging from most balconies.

We hope to see many of you here by the weekend. This will be an epic match up between two explosive offenses. There is the whole "celebration" thing that Urban says in his book will be a big deal and now is saying it is not a big deal. Anyway, it's a big deal. The SEC East is on the line. Time for the Dawgs to put together a complete game in every phase of the game. I will get into the match up later in the week. Enjoy this week Dawgs, it is a big one.

GATA!

HDD PREDICTION - UGA over LSU

I am leaving in two minutes for the airport to go to New Orleans. I may not have another chance to post before the game. If not, here is my predicition...

Dawgs need to win with defense. Stuff the run and take away the short passing game. Sound familiar? Try like hell to get pressure on the quarterback. The biggest key is to have our front four keep their OL off our linebackers so our LBs can make plays.

On offense, we need to give the ball to Knowshon 23 times. Throw quick, high percentage passes. Attempt the long ball a few times, but please do not underthrow the thing. Green can run it down. Remember: "Throw it man. As far as you can."

If we keep the turnover margin neutral or in our favor, we win.

DAWGS 27 - LSU 17.

GATA!

Footie Picker - Weekend of 10/25

Last week I was 7-7, bringing my season record to 46-59. Here we go again...
This week: 8-6, Season: 54-65.

My picks in BOLD.

Thursday
WEST VIRGINIA 3.5 Auburn NOPE

Saturday
MIAMI 3 Wake Forest YEP
FLORIDA 23 Kentucky NOPE
Ole Miss 4 ARKANSAS YEP
VANDERBILT 10 Duke NOPE
Alabama 6.5 TENNESSEE YEP
GEORGIA TECH 13 Virginia YEP
TEXAS 12.5 Oklahoma State YEP
LSU 2.5 Georgia YEP
Oklahoma 19 KANSAS STATE YEP
FLORIDA STATE 5 Virginia Tech NOPE
Texas Tech pick'em KANSAS NOPE
Penn State 1.5 OHIO STATE NOPE
Southern Cal 14.5 ARIZONA YEP

A Couple of Things

Massaquoi and a Devastating Block

While watching the game against Vanderbilt, I noticed Mohamed Massaquoi make a Hines Ward-esque block on a Vandy linebacker and meant to mention it in my comments about the game. It was on the Moreno TD run that was called back because he knee touched the ground. The play was a sweep right and MoMass came from split to the right and was in motion going left and when the ball was snapped, he set up and then ate up a linebacker. He hit him with speed and force and totally decleated him and just smothered him. None of the replays showed the block and none of the announcers mentioned it on Raycom or CSS. Still, was a beautiful play. That kind of blocking along with good receiving will get you on an NFL roster!

Terrence Cody of Alabama

The gargantuan nose tackle for Alabama left the game against Ole Miss with a knee injury. Fortunately for him and his team, it is only a sprained MCL. He will be out at least a couple of weeks, but should return. Imagine if he was out for the year. Then imagine if left tackle Andre Smith was out for the year. Then imagine if right tackle Drew Davis was out for the year and then imagine if LB Rolando McClain was out for at least three conference games and would be slowed for the next two conference games after returning. Ok, got it? Now you're UGA in 2008.

IT'S TIME FOR A COMPLETE GAME

This is what it looks like when you get all of your gears moving at the same time in perfect rhythm...

PULPWOOD SMITH coming back atch-all

Pulpwood Smith on LSU

You know what theior quarterbacks are... don't you?

MUMME POLL after Weekend 10/18

Top 5, perhaps in order of magnitude (no change in the group - only in the top spot):

Texas (moved ahead of Bama based on impressive dismantling of Missouri)
Alabama
Penn State
Florida
OK State (Will this be the zenith of their season?)


Next 7, no particular order:
Texas Tech
Georgia
USC
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Utah
LSU (welcome back Tigers, hope your stay is a short one!)

Gone are:
BYU (Thank you TCU)

This took 5 minutes this week. Next week will most likely be a different story.

UGA-Vandy Observations

Georgia got the win 24-14. That is the most important point. It was not inspiring because of mistakes, dropped interceptions and frustrating play calling. Allow me to bitch for a few minutes and then I will get back to being sunny the rest of the week as we prepare for an epic trip to Baton Rouge.

1. We ran the ball almost at will, especially on the first drive of the second half. Then we abandoned the run and let the game tighten up and finally went back to the run late in the fourth quarter to secure the victory. Would have been nice to put this game away in the 3rd quarter. But, dumbass passing play calls prevented that.

2. Stafford had a good first half and an awful second half. He and the receivers were totally out of synch. So, why in the hell did Bobo insist on continuing trying to pass the ball when we could run at will? Stupid.

3. I love me some Knowshon Moreno, but why does he take a breather after every couple of plays? Sure, it is good for Caleb King to get some reps, but unless KM is hurt, he should be able to manage more than two or three consecutive plays. I have much more confidence in his running ability than I do in Caleb this year. Caleb will do some very good things, but KM is the special player right now and he needs to get the reps and needs to be able to stay on the field in the critical 4th quarter drive that can put the game away. This might seem overly critical, but it has been a pattern all year. ---UPDATE--- I saw that Knowshon's shoe came off after his second carry in the last long drive. That is why he came off at that time.

4. Drops by our secondary and LBs. I counted 4 that should have been caught and a couple more that would have been extraordinary grabs. Two of the dropped interceptions (I know there is really no such thing as a dropped interception because if it was an interception, by default it was not dropped - but bear with me) would have ended scoring drives by Vandy. Theoretically, this could have been a shutout if we could hang onto interceptions.

The SEC Truck commercial. It is sweet to see Dad and Son driving to the SEC game in the old Chevy truck. Tradition and all that. Can somebody tell me at which SEC stadium you can drive right up and park 30 feet from the gate while people are filing into the stadium? Seems more like Division III.

I am glad we got the win. It should not have been as difficult to put this one away. Bobo needs to become a little more comfortable running it down their throats if that is what is working.

HDD PREDICTION - UGA Over Vandy

This will be brief. Same gameplan as we had against UT. It is spelled out here. In a nutshell, our defense stuffs the run and takes away the short passing game and make the QB beat us over the top. Our offense stays balanced with about 45 runs and 25 passes. If they load the box, we pass a little more. Hopefully Moreno will get at least 23 carries. That is his magic number.

If we execute in the red zone, we win going away. We will botch it at least once, but otherwise, I see us getting it done.

I on't be in Athens and will miss the first few minutes if not the entire first quarter. I will be making my first 100 mile bike ride. We leave at 8:00 am and I hope to be back home between 1:00 and 1:30.

DAWGS 34 - Vandy 13.

Go DAWGS! GATA!

Thursday Night Games

Two points...

1. Ten years ago, would you have ever guessed that in 2008, the BYU-TCU game would have greater national relevance than FSU-NC State?

2. Remember when FSU football was explosive and exciting and couldn't possibly put you to sleep?

Footie Picker - Weekend of 10/18

Last week the kids went 6-8 and brought my record for the season to 39-52. I will call my own shots this weekend and see if I can improve this abysmal showing... This week 7-7.

Thursday

Byu 1.5 TCU NOPE

Saturday

Wake Forest 1 MARYLAND NOPE
Georgia Tech 1 CLEMSON NOPE
BOSTON COLLEGE 2.5 Virginia Tech YEP
OKLAHOMA 18 Kansas NOPE
TENNESSEE 8 Miss. State YEP
GEORGIA 15 Vanderbilt NOPE
Pittsburgh 3 NAVY YEP
Ohio State 3.5 MICHIGAN STATE YEP
TEXAS 7 Missouri YEP
North Carolina 5.5 VIRGINIA YEP
PENN STATE 23.5 Michigan NOPE
KENTUCKY 10 Arkansas NOPE
Lsu 3.5 SOUTH CAROLINA YEP

Stafford and Moreno at the Half

Before the season, I made projections on the output for Stafford and Moreno. We are now half way through the 12-game regular season. Now seems like a good time to see how the progress compares to the projections.

Stafford
Projection: I suspect that Stafford's best line will look something like this:235 completions on 392 attempts for a 60% completion percentage. 3220 yards for 230 yards per game. 8.2 yards per attempt and 25 TDs. (These projections were based on best-case scenario of playing 14 games.)

Progress: 111 completions on 180 attempts for 61.7% completion percentage. 1503 yards for 250.5 yards per game. 8.35 yards per attempt and 8 TDs.

Stafford's Attempts are 2 more per game than projected and completion percentage is 1.7% higher than projected. This has led to almost two more completions per game. The average yards per attempt is almost exactly as projected (8.35/8.2) and the yards per game is up from 230 to 250.5. He is well on his way to surpassing the yardage projection of 3220. If he keeps pace, he will reach about 3500 yards.

The biggest discrepancy is TDs. He has 8 and is on pace for 18 or 19 if we play 14 games. This is well short of the 25 TDs projected. He would need to average 2.38 TDs per game the rest of the way to hit my projections.

Though I did not make projections regarding interceptions, Stafford has 3 thus far for an average of 0.5 per game. On that pace, he would have only 7 picks in a 14 game season. Last year, he had 10 picks in 13 games. So he is on track to having a better season in that regard as well.

Groo points out that Stafford's numbers are not tracking to meet Stafford's own pre-season goals. His goals were a little lofty, as you can see.

Moreno
Projection: I project that Moreno's best line will look something like this:1806 yards on 322 attempts for a 5.6 average and 22 TDs. (These projections were based on best-case scenario of playing 14 games.)

Progress: 590 net yards on 105 attempts for a 5.6 average and 10 TDs.

Knowshon is averaging 5.6 yards per carry as I projected but he is not getting as many attempts as projected (17.5 vs 23.) His 98.3 yards per game is below the 129 ypg projection but it is mainly a result of fewer carries. His carries were limited in the first two games by cramps and substitutions. He was limited against Alabama after injuring his elbow. In fact, the only two games in which Moreno got 23 or more carries are ASU (23 for 149 yards) and UT (27 for 101 yards.) For the remainder of the year, Moreno could reach 1600 yards if he averages 23 carries per game. He is currently on pace for 1376 yards in 14 games and can only reach 1800 yards if he averages 151 yards per game. That won't happen. I still think 1600 could happen and might be enough for a Heisman if we run the table.

Knowshon has 10 TDs through 6 games and is on pace to score 23 TDs - which is one better than the 22 TDs projected.

I believe all of the talk about Knowshon not having as good a year as expected is premature. His YPC is tracking through 6 games although his YPC in SEC play is around 4.0. A big day against Vanderbilt can go a long way toward fixing that. However, Vandy is currently only allowing 3.48 YPC. But... last year Vandy allowed 3.73 YPC for the year and Knowshon chewed them up for 157 yards and 5.6 YPC.

In sum... Stafford is ahead of pace and Knowshon is on pace for most categories except attempts and total yards - which are correlated.

What do you think about these two guys, statistically and what about their intangible assets thus far this season?

Look Who Could be President!

http://www.tsgnet.com/pres.php?id=370617&altf=Qvmqxppe&altl=Tnjui

Never underestimate a good grass roots campaign.

OBSERVATIONS: Tennessee Game

1. Defense! We took away their short passing game and absolutely stuffed the run. Funny how well that works. Everyone played well, but it all started with outstanding effort from the front four and outstanding linebacker play despite the absence of Dannel Ellerbe. I was excited to see our cornerbacks walk right up to the line of scrimmage. So they hit one long one. I will take that trade every time. Our pass rush was also much improved. We will need to do the same thing to Vandy and LSU. The defensive gameplan need not change for these next two games. As for the Florida game, we need to sneak Marcus Howard into a uniform.

2. Stafford, Moreno, Massaquoi = tough as nails! All three of these guys took some brutal shots and kept bringing it. MoMass came back in the same series in which he was knocked silly and caught the crucial touchdown to end the first half. Moreno had to fight for almost every one of his 100 yards against a physical defense that is as good as any that we have left on the schedule. Stafford showed again that he has nerves of steel in the pocket while waiting for the route to open. He got hammered several times while zinging a bullet into a tiny window. He had to be hurting on Sunday! Without Stafford's arm, that game would have been a toss up.

3. Red Zone play calling? We need to throw out the fade route. We can't run it and we don't need to. With Stafford's arm, we need to let him throw balls with zip that have less chance of being intercepted. Also, we don't need to get too fancy in the red zone. We need to keep it simple and let our playmakers make plays.

4. Blair Walsh. Kickoffs were much improved - finally. Watching him kick field goals is more fun when we are 40 or more yards out. But, if we have to kick the short ones, at least he is making them! If he can kick in Baton Rouge, he may have to win the game for us.

5. The Fans. Another fine performance.

MUMME POLL after 10/11 Weekend

Here is the poll I submitted today...

Top 5, perhaps in order of magnitude:
Alabama
Texas
Penn State
Florida
OK State


Next 7, no particular order:
BYU
Texas Tech
Georgia
USC
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Utah

Spent about 20 minutes to determine two things:
1. Who would be the 5th team to make the Top 5? Decided on OK State to reward them for beating a very good offensive team (Missouri) and to reward an unblemished record with wins over TAMU, Houston and Troy - who are not terrible. I strongly considered both UGA and OU for this spot and compared both of their resumes to date and had trouble elevating one clearly ahead of the other and finally decided to reward the Pokes for an inspired signature win against a team many thought could get to the Big 12 championship game undefeated.

2. Who would be the 12th team? I chose from among LSU, Utah and Boise State and momentarily considered UNC. Finally decided that Utah's 7 wins were slightly more impressive than Boise's 5 wins. LSU has no important win yet thanks to Auburn's continued slide into the realm of embarassments.

After three weeks of constructing ballots, I will say that it makes much more sense to do groupings rather than splitting fine hairs for every individual spot on a scale of 1 to 25 (or 1 to 12 in the case of this poll.) So far, it has only become difficult when filling the lowest spots of each group. I think it is fair to say that we have 3 teams that clearly deserve the top 3 spots of any poll.

Go DAWGS!

HDD PREDICTION - UGA over UT

Dawgnation has been nursing a severe hangover for almost two weeks after being hammered at home by Alabama. We had countless players injured who have been trying to get well for this game coming up with Tennessee. Some will not make it back in time, but we will have most of the guys we started against Alabama except Danell Ellerbe, Tripp Chandler and Kris Durham. We will miss those guys - especially Ellerbe - but we have to play with what we've got.

Wednesday night I had a series of anxiety dreams. In one, I showed up to Athens with the wrong tickets. When the house is almost 6 hours away, that is an irremediable error. In the second dream, I was trying like hell to walk to the stadium and kept running into delays of various kinds and missed most of the first quarter. I am adamant about being in my seat at least 10 or 15 minutes before kickoff. This dream was extremely frustrating. Then, in the final dream, we were losing by a couple of points late in the fourth quarter and were driving for the winning score. I woke up before this dream concluded, so now, I must analyze these dreams in the context of my concerns about this game.

Needless to say, I am worried about this game. This game is pivotal. A loss would scuttle the season while a convincing win would restore much of the confidence and swagger we will need if we are going to make a run for the SEC title. I am almost always worried going into the Tennessee game and usually with good reason. Last year, I wasn't worried. In fact, I predicted a blowout - but had the teams backwards. Last year I was overconfident. This year, not in the least. Sure, UT has looked confused and inept on offense for most of the season. But, their defense has been reliable and they still have a stable of great athletes on offense. I have no doubt that they could pull their head out of their ass on Saturday, but I hope that Rennie Curran will be there to return that very same head to that very same ass. So what do we have to do to win?

Our offensive line will be the key to this game. If they can get the job done and make room for Knowshon to run, we will be able to execute our play-action passing game and move the ball consistently. We must run effectively if we want to dictate the outcome of this game. If Knowshon can eclipse the 100 yard barrier, we will win. If, as a team, we rush for over 200 yards, it will be a convincing win.

If we run the ball well, Stafford will be charged with merely managing the game, hitting a few passes on first down and protecting the football. He will not be asked to win the game. If we cannot run it, then Stafford will have to sling it all over the field like the second half against Alabama and hope that their offense continues to walk into walls.

On defense, we must plan to stop the run and take away the short passes. That is asking a lot for a team that just flat doesn't ever take away the short passes. Still, in this game, we must load up the line of scrimmage to stop the run and press the receivers at the line to take away the short game. Take those things away and challenge the new QB at UT to connect on the deep ball. At this point, I will pledge not to complain or get upset if UT connects on a couple of deep balls - IF - they have no success in the short passing game. We simply cannot let them dink and dunk us to death like they have the past two years. The key to our defensive gameplan is the front four. Those guys must get a push upfield against the UT o-line and tie up the linemen so our linebackers can make plays. Our front four must also provide more pressure on the passer than we have been seeing. If this occurs, we will disrupt their offense enough that they will not be able to use this as their get well game like they did last year.

I am comforted by two things: the off week and the fact that I am worried. I believe the off week was useful for our team to heal and to work on our problems and hopefully allow our offensive line to gel more than they have up until this point. I expect that our defensive coaches will have created an effective gameplan for what UT needs to do to win the game - rushing and short passing. On the second point, I am glad that I am worried. I am not taking UT lightly despite their underwhelming performances thus far this season. If I am not taking them lightly, I know that our coaches and players aren't taking them lightly. If we are prepared for a fight from the opening coin toss, we will be able to take that fight to the Volunteers early and often. Unlike my dreams, we need to show up ready, come out fast and keep our foot on the accelerator.

I would like to see our run:pass ratio around 40:25. That is a balance that works for our talents. I think we are capable of gaining close to 400 yards in this game if we execute. That means we cannot turn the ball over or kill ourselves with penalties. We should find our defense capable of holding UT under 20 points. I am confident that our offense is capable of scoring close to 30 points if we avoid turnovers and deadly penalties. But, I am worried that we won't play so flawlessly - hence the dreams. I hope my dreams were no harbinger of things to come, but if they were, I hope we get that late score that I missed by waking up. I will take any win, though we truly need to win in convincing fashion to start gathering the momentum we need for the toughest part of our schedule that remains.

When it is all said and done, I expect our Dawgs to win a game that will be closer than this final score:

Dawgs 27 - Vols 17.

GO DAWGS!

FOOTIE PICKER - Weekend of 10/11

Last week, I let my kids pick for me and they were 9-5. So I am going back to the well. They have made some interesting selections, but with my record, who am I to question their choices. Our Record for the year is 33-44. Update - The kids came crashing backto earth with a combined 6 - 8.

Annie's Picks (Age 8) - 3 and 4

Thursday
WAKE FOREST 3 Clemson NOPE

Saturday
East Carolina 5.5 VIRGINIA NOPE
Michigan State 3 NORTHWESTERN YEP
Oklahoma 7 Texas (In Dallas) YEP
KENTUCKY 1 South Carolina NOPE
Vanderbilt 2.5 MISS STATE YEP
OHIO STATE 19 Purdue NOPE

Hampton"s Picks (Age 5) - 3 and 4

MISSOURI 13.5 Oklahoma State YEP
GEORGIA 13 Tennessee NOPE
SOUTHERN CAL 26.5 Arizona State NOPE
UNC 7.5 Notre Dame NOPE
AUBURN 19 Arkansas YEP
Penn State 5 WISCONSIN NOPE
FLORIDA 6 Lsu YEP

Last week I identified 3 of their picks that I was most concerned about and I was wrong on all three. Again, here are the picks that worry me... Clemson (they are going to cover on the road?), OK St (if they stay within 13.5 points in this one, there will be over 100 points scored), GEORGIA (is the hangover gone?).