Footie Picker Weekend of 9/12

After picking up right where I left off last year, I was abominable on my picks in Week 1 going 3-10.

Here are my picks for Week 2. What the hell, can't get worse can I?

Thursday

GEORGIA TECH 4.5 Clemson

Saturday

Unc 4.5 UCONN
AUBURN 14 Miss State
WISCONSIN 8 Fresno State
WAKE FOREST 2 Stanford
GEORGIA 7 South Carolina
TENNESSEE 7.5 Ucla
OREGON 11.5 Purdue
Notre Dame 3 MICHIGAN
Tcu 11 VIRGINIA
LSU 14.5 Vandy
Souther Cal 7 OHIO STATE
Byu 17.5 TULANE

Why Do It?

After the disappointing loss in Stillwater, a friend asked me, "Why do we do this? Is it worth it to spend all this money and time to end up this disappointed?"

I considered the question for a few days and now I will offer my answer.

People need hobbies. Some golf, some fish, some fly hot air balloons, Techies play World of Warcraft. Many hobbies are expensive. Where I live, you can't golf on a nice course for under $100 a round. Add balls and beers (more beers = more balls) and it is more like $150 for a day of golf. Fishing can be expensive unless you enjoy sitting on a pond with a pint of red wigglers and a cane pole pulling up bream and crappie. In fact, off-shore fishing is so expensive that my friend, Vann Simmons, once compared the cost of deer hunting to fishing by saying that if you threw your deer rifle in the river after every hunt, a day of fishing would still cost more than a day of deer hunting. Following the Dawgs can also be expensive. My UGA football habit cost me as follows:

• $650 Two season tickets minimum contribution
• $520 for 2 tickets to each of 6 home games plus on ticket to Jax
  
• $400 in gas to get me up to Athens for the four home games I will actually attend
• $300 for the plane ticket to one away game I may attend (ie. LSU in '08, OSU in '09)
• $1000 (approximate) for hotels
• $150 as my contribution to the best tailgate spot on campus - Thanks Stebin
• $100 parking pass for the annual debacle on the St. Johns
• TOTAL = $3120

Now, I am sure many spend less if they don't have to drive 600 miles round-trip for home games and I am sure some spend more. But for me, it is about a $3000 annual habit. For Sugar Bowl years, add $1000. That is the equivalent cost of about 20 rounds of golf. I don't play much golf, so I don't have that expense. This is also about the same cost as 10 fishing charters. I do fish, but we have our own boat and it costs a lot more than our Dawg habit. I know some folks that spend at least $3000 for one big game hunt out west every year. Send your wife to NY on a girls trip once a year... $3000. The point is, that as hobbies go, following UGA football is not insanely expensive - at least not to those of us fortunate enough to not have to work for Ga. Tech grads.

Many hobbies are distractions from our daily grind and are generally things we enjoy. However, no matter how much you enjoy your hobby, it will surely disappoint you at times. Spend an entire day in the hot sun fishing when the fish have all taken the day off and all you come home with is a burn and a buzz. On those days, you rationalize that it was fun to be on the water with family/friends and that is what it is all about. Spend a day on the golf course when you can't predict whether your next swing will yield a slice or hook so you score in triple digits. On those days, you rationalize that it was still fun to spend a day on the course with good friends. Following the Dawgs is no different in this respect, but for me there are elements to following our football team that generally does not exist in any other hobby: tradition and pride.

I am a fifth-generation UGA Alumnus - though I went to Navy for undergrad, I circled back five years later to get my law degree in Athens. Not only that, but I slyly worked it so that I could get stationed at the Navy Supply Corps School as an instructor for 2 of my 5 years in the Navy. Thus, I was able to spend 5 consecutive years in Athens from 1992 to 1996. I can't remember my first Georgia game because I was too young to remember. But, I can remember many many times being in Sanford Stadium back when us kids would care more about playing with tiny red plastic footballs on the grassy hills inside the stadium more than we cared about the Dawgs game. Those hills are long gone - replaced with thousands of seats instead. For years, our family tailgated in shade over by Clark-Howell Hall. It was a family affair often with no less than three generations present and sometimes four. When I was at school in Annapolis, I would haul ass on at least one weekend each year to come to Athens for a home game. This was particularly fun when my sister was a Phi Mu in Athens and us Navy boys would leave our nearly all-male institution to hang out for a weekend with Phi Mu's finest.

In addition to our family traditions, there are so many dear UGA traditions that distinguish following the Dawgs from golfing and fishing. The Redcoat Band, UGA, the Chapel Bell, Larry Munson, Erk, Vince, Herschel, Hating Tech, Harry Bissett's, etc. All of these things are meaningful to me and it is special to share these common traditions with family and friends. I love to hear my children singing Glory Glory to Ole Georgia. I love to listen to all the great Munson calls. I love to be in the middle of the Dawg Walk. These things bring me joy. More joy than golfing or fishing - though I do love to catch a nice fish.

After tradition, there is pride. We have pride in our academic institution, pride in our beautiful campus, pride in the Classic City, pride in our state, pride in our heritage, pride in our colors and thankful that orange isn't one of them! We also have pride in our sports teams and our history of tremendous success on many levels.

Tradition, pride and the promise of fun are what bring me back to Athens season after season. The hope of a glorious season is always a part of the allure, but it is never the only attraction. It can't be because though many of us have been following the Dawgs long enough to experience a few seasons of glory, we have witnessed our share of painful disappointment. Many of us enjoyed a perfect season in 1980, but fewer and fewer of us can claim to have experienced the 1946 perfect season and none of us we around for the 1896 perfect season. So, while perfection is a goal, it certainly is not the prevailing reason that all of us spend time and treasure to follow the Dawgs every year. Perfect seasons are rare. Glorious season are semi-rare. Great times in Athens with family and friends are abundant. Great times at road games, interacting with the opposing fans and visiting places for perhaps the only time in your life are lifetime memories that long outlive the elation of winning the game.

Why do we do it? Because we love the tradition and pride of Georgia Football and enjoy the memories of great times with great people. We love winning SEC Championships, but we go even when winning a championship is a long-shot. Though there is the potential for pain and disappointment and even madness in following any sports team, there is always joy to be found in all of the other elements that constitute the UGA experience. There has to be because Sanford Stadium has been sold out for every home game for years and has been 7th or higher in average attendance every year but one since 1981. We haven't won all of our games during that span, but we love our Dawgs nevertheless.

All of us want to see victories on the field and we expect to win almost all of our games every year. We have been blessed that in 112 years of football, only 10 schools have more victories and only 4 schools have more victories this millennium. We expect to win SEC Championships and another National Title sooner than later. Make no mistake, we come to see our team win - and they usually do... but win or lose, we come for the tradition and pride that have us addicted to UGA football. YES, it is worth all of the money and time to follow UGA football and spend 5 or 6 weekends each year with some of my favorite people on the planet. It is damn sure worth it and I will keep on coming and will be bringing may family and friends with me!

GO DAWGS! GATA!

Last Comments on OSU Game

Here are 5 items about the game in Stillwater that I feel like writing about:

1. Joe Cox was not sharp - flu, sore arm, whatever. Must feel the pressure and take care of the football in the pocket. Throw the ball away when running for your life outside the tackles. He got little help from his receivers - I counted four 3rd down throws that were not great passes but were catchable and were not caught. Got less help from the playcalling by Bobo - Must be put into quick hitting pass plays that don't require multiple reads and long passes. Must get the ball to AJ Green at least 10 times each game.

2. Mike Bobo was completely schizophrenic in his playcalling and failed to find a combination that would move the chains. Pray that he solves this issue by Saturday. I think we need to commit to establishing the run since we cannot establish the pass first with Cox's arm. Make it easier for Cox by making defenses respect the run and then throw off of play-action.

3. Offensive line did not impose their will like I expected going in and and kept looking for in the second half. In fact, it appeared that the OSU DL took over as they game went on and that they were better conditioned. To me, perhaps the failure of our offensive line to open gaping holes for our running game that was most surprising thing of the day. I hope Coach Searels was equally disappointed. If so, we will certianly see improvement next Saturday.

4. Richard Samuel did not break tackles. He runs hard and has great top-end speed, but he must elude tackles better. I know he only recently turned 18, so I hold out hope that he can continue to improve. Getting Caleb King back may (and I stress may) take some of the pressure off. Caleb King, heal thyself. We need a second big -ish back. We can use Carlton Thomas situationally, but he is not equipped to carry the ball into traffic.

5. Reshad Jones - Great stick that was completely legal and nobody can ever intelligently say otherwise. It was a stunningly horrible call. Jones led with his shoulder and hit the receiver in the sternum and did NOT raise his forearm whatsoever. In fact, if you want to create a "How To" video to teach DBs and referees on how to properly make a legal hit on a receiver, this would be the perfect training video. I can only hope that this hit got enough exposure on ESPN highlights that at least one of our SEC opponent receivers willl be thinking about it, consciously or subconsciously, and will grow alligator arms at a crucial moment in the game. Perhaps Mo Brown this Saturday. I was proud of our defense despite the goose egg in the sacks department.

BONUS: Here is a great recipe for football analysis: Drink heavily from 10:00 am until approximately 7:00 pm - at which point your team has lost a bitterly disappointing football game. Then go on message boards and blog comments and impress the world with your drunken drivel about firing coaches and yanking scholarships. Sharp, boys. Razor sharp.

There is more that could be said, but I am looking forward... moving on.

GO DAWGS! GATA!

Took The Words Right Out of My Mouth

I was planning on writing my thoughts about the OSU game today and to my good fortune, I discovered in my comments from Sunday's brief post that my law school buddy, Greg Pope, had done the work for me. I have cut and pasted his remarks below to give them front page, above-the-fold coverage. I agree with every word of Greg's post and I believe he drilled into all of my chief concerns. In a subsequent post, I will add a little to this. In the meantime, I yield to Mr. Pope...

Some observations re Saturday's disappointing loss:

Bobo went to sleep after the first drive - which was the most frustrating aspect of the game; we have to find some receivers who will catch - too many drops; Cox has to limit the mistakes and turnovers; the offensive line didn't blow them off the ball like I thought they would; Samuel has to get tough enough to fight through that first contact - he went down too many times after a 3 yard gain when he could have gotten 6 or 7 yards; we are inexplicably weak up front on defense; we don't blitz effectively if at all which we need to do because our ends cannot pressure the quarterback; Rennie Curran, our best defender, is 5'8" tall which means quarterbacks can see over him when he blitzes up the middle; our coaches don't seem to adjust well on the fly; we still don't have a kicker who can put it in the endzone; special teams coverage is still lacking. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

Positives: Butler's kid can punt it a mile which we may need this year. The defense - even without getting any pressure on the QB - only really had one lapse which was the long tochdown pass. They were tough against the run. Ehhh, I can't think of anything else positive to say.

What we can take away from the game: Okie State is a pretty good football team and was ranked higher than us so it wasn't a shocker. It is still disappointing to lose the first game. We won't see anyone with that much talent until LSU. We should know more about this team this Saturday night. The greatest amount of improvement in a football team comes between weeks 1 and 2. If we are flat Saturday night, it may be a long year. It's always ugly against the Gamecocks so they are going to have to dig down deep, play gritty on both sides of the ball, and win an ugly one on Saturday. If we come out swinging, we may salvage an 8 or 9 win season. If not, yikes.

Thanks Greg.

Dawgs Get Cow-Poked Right in the Eye

Fumbles, ill-timed penalties, blown kickoff coverage, no sacks... 2008 called and it wants its season back. I'll write more to follow-up tomorrow or Monday. For now, I wish to congratulate OSU and wish them well for the rest of their season. We have been treated extremely well out here in Stillwater and I would like to personally thank all of these good people for their hospitality. I really am pulling for them to win the Big 12 this year.

GOOOOOOOO NAVY.... FIGHT!

Anchors Aweigh in Columbus.

Oh.... nice block in the back Buckeye.

DAWG FOOD AND SCRAPS OF COWPOKES

Here is the temperature in Stillwater... The OSU fans are quite hospitable and we have been invited to at least 4 different tailgate parties. While polite, the usual taunts have been along the lines of "Y'all sure did come a long way to get your butt's beat." One fan told us that our freshman quarterback was going to learn about Big 12 football. I suppose he is right, Aaron Murray and Zach Mettenberger did both make the trip. These folks have been most pleasant even though their town is a far cry from Athens. The stadium is a marvel - small but impressive. (Save your penis jokes - I recognize the set-up.)

Thus far, I don't think I have spoken to a single OSU fan who has the slightest notion what is going to happen to them today. Ah... ignorance is such bliss. One guy asked me "Really, how do you guy's expect to win?" I answered "I guess we will have to play good defense, good offense and good special teams." I watch them and listen to them and smile, as if I have a tremendous secret. But, it should be no secret at all. Do they not recall the 2007 opener? Do they truly have no memory of how this Dawg will bite you? In exactly 6 hours, the Dawgs will be flying around Pickens stadium at such blinding speed and wreaking such destruction that the damn tornado sirens will be going off all over Oklahoma - where the Dawgs have come sweepin' down the plains!

Buckle up Dawgnation... as Jeff Owens tweeted at 7:13 this morning: Rise and shine, this is the day God has made so let us rejoice and be glad in it!!! (the three exclamation points are his)

BOOTS ON THE GROUND

Rothschild and I are now Boots On The Ground in Stillwater - based out of the Cimarron Hotel about 300 yards from T. Boone's Shrine. We have heard about Joe Cox's illness and we are encouraged that most still expect him to play. Worry not Dawg fans, worry not.

We will be out and about so hit me on Twitter if you are in town. I believe Joe's and Murphy's are on the agenda for this evening, but we are going to dinner with some friends first.

Andrew and I are both expecting Shaun Chapas to score tomorrow. What do you think?

Go Dawgs!

HDD Prediction: Dawgs - Pokes

This game is hard to figure in terms of a final score prediction. Their offense can scores points in bunches, but their defense allows points in bunches. Our offense scored effortlessly at times last season, but Stafford, Moreno and Massaquoi are gone to the NFL. Our defense was terrible at times last year, but will most assuredly be improved.

Here is what I expect... Both teams will score early making it look like it could be a high scoring affair. But, our strategy to slow the game down with our road-paving offensive line and bruising teen-age tailback will start to wear on the OSU defense and will keep their offense safely on the sideline. This will go on for long stretches of clock and by half-time, the score will be something like UGA 10 - OSU 10.

In the second half, after relentless pounding by our pleasingly deep offensive and defensive lines, the battle of the trenches will have been won and we will own the line of scrimmage. Accordingly, we will be able to force our will when we have the football and will turn them strictly one-dimensional when they have the football. When that happens, we score and they don't.

I always expect a Mark Richt - Mike Bobo offense to be balanced on offense and that typically yields about 2/3 running plays and 1/3 passing plays. This means about 45 runs and 25 passes. Richard Samuel will have about 25 carries and will average more than 5 yards per carry - netting him over 125 yards rushing and probably closer to 250 yards. The other 20 carries will be divided among Carlton Thomas, Shaun Chapas, Logan Gray and maybe a Branden Smith end around type play. I am most confident that we will rush for over 200 yards. Once we have OSU adjust to try and stop the run, Joe Cox will have much more opportunity to find open receivers off of play action. Since Gray will also have a few throws, I will say that the two will combine for about 15 completions on 25 throws for about 220 yards. There are going to be a few short passes that get turned into big gains. With all of this offensive output, I would expect us to score 34 points if we don't have crucial penalties and if we win the turnover battle.

When OSU has the ball, they will not be able to run in the middle - at all. So if they run on us at all, it will have to be on the outside - which Tech proved possible last December. However, I think we will have much improved discipline in our execution on defense and I expect us to hold their rushing game down around the 100-125 yard mark. So, if they are going to move the ball, it will have to be in the air. I think they have some success early, but when they are unable to establish their running game, we will adjust to limit the effectiveness of their Robinson to Dez Bryant passing attack. They may still throw for 250 yards, but most will be in the first quarter or between the 20's. By turning them one-dimensional, we will force them to try more field goals and have less real TD opportunities. Unless they score on special teams or with their defense, we will hold them under 24 points.

So, under the best scenario, I would have us winning 34 to 20. However, I will factor in that we are on the road with a new starting QB and TB against the preseason #9 team. I hope I am wrong about this, but I feel we might miss a couple of opportunities to really pull away in this one and will have to settle with grinding out a 30 - 24 win.

Dawgs 30 - Poke 24.

GO DAWGS! GATA!!!

An Offensive Formation I Would Love to See

THIS EXCITES ME...

So the Dawgs have 3rd down and 5 yards to go at multiple points throughout the game... based on what you know right now about this team, what formation, personnel and play do you call?

I like the idea of these 5 players on the field:

AJ Green
Michael Moore
Aron White or Orson Charles
Shaun Chapas
Carlton Thomas

Now I line up in a split backfield (Chapas right - Thomas left), TE right, Moore is wide right, Green wide left. I have Green running a skinny post while I flood the right side as follows: Moore is running a 12-15 yard out route, TE is running a 10 yard curl and Chapas is on a flare route. Meanwhile Thomas is running a delayed release to the left flat. All of these guys are athletic, sure-handed players - and I can't imagine that OSU can cover all 5 consistently in these situations. I believe the tendency will be to double AJ Green. So on the left side, the corner will run with Green and one safety cheats to that side. Maybe a nickel back is assigned to Thomas but you would think that there would be a one-on-one match up in the left flat without much help available if the one man misses. Now, over on the flooded right side - Moore, a proven 3rd down reliable go to guy, will attract enough attention that could leave Chapas alone in the flat and almost certainly our tall athletic tight ends create a mismatch with either a smaller db or a slower linebacker.

I really like this scenario with Cox's accurate arm in the game... but imagine the additional pressure you put on the defense if you insert dual-threat Logan Gray in this situation?

One variation would be to sneak Chapas up the middle after a quick delay - a la P-44 Haynes.

Compared to last year, the utilization of either White or Charles at TE makes the 5 eligible receivers more dangerous than any group we used last year since White was not used nearly enough. In addition, Gray gives us the potential to add an element not seen since DJ Shockley lead the team.

So what do you think? How would you deploy these weapons?

Footie Picker Weekend of 9/5

Footie Picker is back and here are my picks for Week 1.

Thursday

NC STATE 4.5 South Carolina Yep
BOISE STATE 4.5 Oregon NOPE

Saturday

OHIO STATE 22 Navy YEP
MICHIGAN 12.5 Western Michigan NOPE
WAKE FOREST 2.5 Baylor NOPE
OKLAHOMA ST 5.5 Georgia NOPE
NOTRE DAME 14 Nevada NOPE
AUBURN 13 Louisiana Tech NOPE
OKLAHOMA 21.5 Byu YEP
Alabama 7 Virginia Tech (at Atlanta) NOPE
CALIFORNIA 21.5 Maryland NOPE
Ole Miss 16.5 MEMPHIS (on Sunday) NOPE
FLORIDA STATE 5.5 Miami (on Monday) NOPE

John Tanner: Damn Good Dawg

My father, John Andrew Tanner is a damn good husband, damn good father, damn good grandfather, damn good friend, and a Damn Good Dawg! And he will be able to enjoy this football season thanks to damn good medical care at St. Luke's Hospital in Jacksonville. Last Friday, he did a nuclear stress test to check for arterial blockages. Yesterday, the cardiologist did a heart catheterization and placed stents in two arteries. Thanks to this amazing medical innovation, open-heart bypass surgery wasn't needed. My dad is feeling quite well and will be released from the hospital today. Just amazing. The doctor said he would have had a heart attack eventually because of the blockages. We are thankful that he caught the problem when he did and especially before football season. This may not be the year to watch our Dawgs with a heart problem.

(John Tanner - pictured top left - with his extended family during the 2008 Annual Turkey Bowl in the 9th Fairway at Douglas Golf and Country Club.)

In the recovery room, his first comment to my brother and me was that we are doing a stress test in the next few weeks. It was not a suggestion and did not sound negotiable. Guess who will be doing stress tests soon?

(My dad and me on a Gulfstream fishing trip on the Hunker Down with a nice Wahoo.)

Throughout the afternoon, while he was recovering, he kept asking about Dawg news from around the blogosphere as I was trying to keep abreast via my Blackberry. We followed the whole Rotowire Zac Robinson leg injury mystery via the interwebs and kept up with Jeff Owens and Mike Moore via Twitter. By the way, did you know you can get fried oreos in Athens? Talk about arterial blockages!

Early this morning I called my dad to check on him. He told me he felt really good and that he must be fine because he was feeling a little "ornery." I didn't hear him perfectly so I asked if he was feeling "horny" or "ornery." He said "Both!" Damn Good Dawg, indeed!

On this trip, my dad and I both landed our first sailfish, which according to fishing tradition meant...

... that we had to do this...


Thanks for all that you have done and continue to do for us Paw Paw. We love you and look forward to many more seasons of following the Dawgs and great fishing.

GATA!

Jody's OSU Preview

Jody has now posted his OSU Preview. Thorough analysis game after game, year after year. Check it out every week.

Pulpwood On Okie State

He is baaaaaacccckkkkk!!!!!

Pulpwood!

Okie State Game

MY FIRST ROUND OF THOUGHTS ON THE OKIE STATE GAME

Discipline on defense will be the key. Two years ago, we disrupted OSU’s entire offense by bringing unrelenting heat on QB Bobby Reid. Saturday, we must get pressure on Zac Robinson, but we cannot allow him to escape contain and beat us with his feet. We also must be aware of screens and shuttle passes to Hunter so that an aggressive pass rush doesn’t get exploited to our detriment.

Against the run… well they won’t gain a yard in the middle, but when Hunter tries to get to the corner, we cannot over-pursue or swing and miss like we did against the Tech backs last December. Hunter has the speed and balance to make us pay if he can turn the corner.

These are my main concerns.

I feel like our offense will move the ball with a balance of 67% runs and 33% passes which will help control the clock and keep their offense off the field. The key for our offense will be turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns instead of field goals (no offense Rex.) If we do that, we will be fine.

GATA!

Who Will Be the Dawgs' Sack Leader in 2009???

If Speed Kills, Then Sacks at Least Maim and Torture

Last August, I posed this same question in this post. My projections for the 2009 Sack leaders were :

"Lomax will lead the team with 8.5 sacks and Atkins will be second with 7 sacks. Houston will contribute 6 as a back up."

But what had happened was that our defensive ends stayed hurt all year and production was abysmal. Lomax had half a sack, Atkins had zero sacks (unbelievable - though he did have 7.5 tackles for loss) and Houston had only 2.5 sacks. The team only registered 24 sacks - down from 42 in 2007. The leaders were:
Curran - 3
Irvin - 3
Wynn - 3
Houston - 2.5
Dobbs - 2.0
Ellerbe - 2.0

Last year I determined that it would be a puzzle to project how the sacks would turn out and it unfortunately was. It is a puzzle again this year, but I will make a bold attempt to predict who, if anyone, will give opposing QBs fits.

I think the clear preseason favorite would be Justin Houston. Especially if he wasn't going to miss the first two games. Demarcus Dobbs, Rod Battle and Marcus Washington will be the other ends getting the most reps. I want to put Geno Atkins in the mix again for 2009 now that he will have Jeff Owens back. Atkins went from 7.5 sacks in 2007 to zero in 2008. I think he will get back to his old ways this season. It is difficult to project which linebackers will have the most sacks but undoubtedly Curran, Gamble, Dewberry, Dent and Dowtin will have chances. So those are the candidates. Rod Battle had a strong Spring and preseason and appears to be at full strength to start the season. While working through injuries all season last year, Battle was only able to muster half a sack. This year will be different for him and the team.

Our annual sack production in recent years is as follows:

2008 Curran, Irvin, Wynn - 3 each (Team - 24)
2007 Marcus Howard - 11.5 (Team - 42)
2006 Charles Johnson - 9.5 (Team - 33)
2005 Quentin Moses - 11.5 (Team - 34)
2004 David Pollack - 12.5 (Team - 37)
2003 David Pollack - 7.5 (Team - 30)
2002 David Pollack - 14 (Team - 45)

Assuming we get back to at least an average year in the sack department, I believe 35 sacks is not unreasonable. However, we don't necessarily have a sack specialist like most of the leaders in years past. So, if we are to achieve these kind of numbers in 2009, it will be spread widely among many players. Accordingly, here are my projections:


Houston - 7
Battle - 5
Washington - 4
Atkins - 4
Dobbs - 4
Curran - 3
Dent - 3
And 5 more sacks coming from the field at large.

What do you think? Who will lead the way? Can we get back to 35 or more sacks in 2009?

HDD Getting all Tweety

I have just created a Twitter account under my name here: hamptanner

I will be tweeting from Stillwater in less than 5 days! Follow me if you dare.

JOE COX OUTLOOK

HOW WILL JOE COX PERFORM AT THE HELM?



Five Things We Know:

• Knows the playbook as well as any quarterback we have had or will have.
• Has an accurate arm, though not nearly the rifle of Stafford.
• Is well-respected by his teammates.
• Has the most experienced OL we have had in years.
• Knows this is his last year of football and has paid his dues.

Five Things We Do Not Know:

• How well he will read defenses prior to the snap.
• How well he will react to the speed of the game after the snap.
• Will he be able to stretch defenses by connecting on a few long-ish balls to Green or King?
  
• How well he will be able to elude the rush or tuck the ball and run.
  
• How will he respond to adversity within a game?

I am confident that his knowledge of the offense/playbook will allow him to read defenses and make appropriate checks at the line of scrimmage. However, I think the speed of the game will be challenging at first and will take him a few complete games to become comfortable.

Though he doesn't have the arm strength of Stafford, I hope that his awareness of this will keep him from trying to force balls into coverage - which plagued Stafford at times. From Cox, I will be content to see lots of short, high-percentage passes to playmakers who can do something once they get the ball in their hands. In other words, not all 40+ yard pass plays need result from balls traveling this distance purely through the air. (For examples, see Montana, Joe - Rice, Jerry.) When Mike Bobo replaced Eric Zeier, the offensive passing scheme was designed around his strength, which was quick-hitting short routes. In 1997, this strategy allowed Bobo to complete 65% of his passes for 2751 yards and an efficiency rating of 155.8. Against Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl, Bobo was an amazing 26 of 28 for 267 yards. Physically, I see no reason that Cox's arm could not be deployed in a similar fashion and I am hopeful that Cox will enjoy similar success with his talented corps of receivers - Green, King, Moore, Brown, White, Charles and Chapas and probably Carlton Thomas.

I have no idea if he will have the knack to evade rushers like Stafford did. Nor do I know if Cox could have success on designed runs - which was hit and miss with Stafford. But, we know that Logan Gray is a QB we will use on occasion to run draws and other dual-threat packages. So, I don't expect much running from Cox and will be pleasantly surprised if he breaks off a few decent runs in the first few games.

As far as adversity goes, Cox came in and saved our hides against Colorado in 1996 by throwing two TDs in the fourth quarter. But, he came off the bench in that situation. We will have to see how he responds when something goes awry in a game in which he has all of the responsibility from start to finish. I believe that his maturity and leadership ability will help him to remain calm and composed during times of adversity, but this remains to be seen until he is in the fire. If we are fortunate, he will be like the coolest customer we ever had under center - David Greene.

We don't need Joe Cox to be a hero. We only need him to be steady and to avoid crucial mistakes. I think the fact that he will have a talented, veteran offensive line in front of him will be a huge advantage that recent UGA QBs have not had and may make all the difference for Joe.

Here is something to consider... in 2001, freshman starter David Greene threw 27 times per game; in 2005, first year starter - senior DJ Shockley threw 28 times per game; and in 2006, our QBs (Stafford, Tereshinki and Cox) threw 26 times per game. I suppose we can assume that our QBs will throw the ball at least 25 times per game. This won't be like GT and Josh Nesbitt. We will be throwing the ball. It will be imperative that our QBs can get the ball in our receivers hands. Richt's offenses thrive when balanced, so passing the ball effectively must happen for us to be successful.

What do you guys look for from Joe this season?

GO JOE, GATA!

Pulpwood in the River

Pulpwood Smith - Dunked in the Satilla River

On Sunday, August 23rd, 2009, Andre "Pulpwood" Smith was baptized in the Satilla River near Douglas, GA. The Baptism was performed by Pastor Marty Wilkes of the Crossroads Baptist Church in Douglas. The following photos were taken by Anne Marie Hanna Fussell.



Love the high-five! Way to go Pulpwood. God Bless You buddy!

A New Season: Under the Radar and I Like it This Way!

This time last year, the preseason #1 ranking and related media hype was unraveling upon the news of Trinton Sturdivant's injury. Almost immediately upon learning of the loss of Sturdivant for the season, Mark May celebrated and announced that UGA's 2008 quest for the National Title was done. He would be correct, a rarity, but for a lot more reasons than the injury to our starting left tackle. It was, arguably, more the lack of healthy and productive defensive ends throughout the season that derailed our chances to win the SEC East or more. The Dawgs were quickly bounced from the top two spots in the polls for not beating Georgia Southern by 60 points - and the loss of defensive team leader, Jeff Owens, for the season on the third play of the game. The season of so much promise quickly devolved into the anathema of modern UGA football. Sure we had 10 wins. But the 3 losses were all painful and embarrassing and continue to serve as a reminder of why our love affair with the red and black is equal parts joy, pain and madness.

Now we gear up for another season with a chance to experience euphoric highs, suicidal lows and everything in between. This pre-season our team has not been wreathed with the albatross of a stratospheric ranking and I like it this way!

This season is all upside. While I know we will win at least 10 games - because it's what we do - I honestly enjoy that we are underdogs as we prepare to open on the road in the debut of T. Boone's Shrine against the reportedly unstoppable offensive juggernaut that is Oklahoma State. I love that we are being underestimated. The burden of expectation is light as a result. The reports from the off-season and camp have indicated that this group has galvanized into a "team" with more focus and exponentially less distractions than we had one year ago. While we have the need for players to step up at QB, RB and CB, our trenches are in great shape right now and that reminds me of a wise Naval saying from John Paul Jones... "Men mean more than guns in the rating of a ship." In my view, in the rating of a team, look to the trenches. If you have a solid core of big nasty lineman willing to bust ass for little recognition, then your skill players will all look better. In Athens, it is our strength this season with defensive pillars like Jeff Owens, Geno Atkins, Kade Weston, DeAngelo Tyson, Demarcus Dobbs, a healthy Rod Battle and an unsuspended Justin Houston and offensive road pavers like Clint Boling, Trinton Sturdivant, Ben Jones, Cordy Glenn, Bean Anderson, Chris Davis, Tanner Strickland and Vince Vance. There are even more capable back ups that I didn't name. If this was the eighties, Wendy's founder Dave Thomas would not ask "Where's the beef?" when evaluating the 2009 installment of UGA football. We have veterans upon of veterans in the trenches and I like it this way!

We start the season with a "real" game against a highly ranked opponent instead of brave-but-overmatched1-AA (can I still use that?) team or a middling 1-A program with an enigmatic mascot. For whatever reason, our teams have historically had much higher focus and intensity in seasons in which we open with a quality opponent (Clemson, Boise State, Oklahoma State.) A big win early on the national stage is exactly our team needs to set the tone for this season and I like it this way!

We have receivers and tight ends that our opponents have never heard of who will have great seasons by making teams pay for doubling AJ Green. I am talking about Tavares King, Michael Moore, Marlon Brown, Rantavious Wooten, Israel Troupe, Aron White, Orson Charles, Arthur Lynch and Bruce Figgins (when he returns.) When they don't double team AJ Green, he will make them pay and I like it this way!

As usual, we have a stud fullback to pancake unsuspecting defenders while paving the way for a stable of young capable tailbacks. In addition, Shaun Chapas has the best hands of any fullback we have had since Verron Haynes, and I like it this way!

We have about fiftyleven linebackers with significant game experience - Gamble, Dewberry, Dent, Dowtin and Washington (though he may play end exclusively). Then there is the heart of this team personified wearing #35 tackling everything on the field not carrying pom poms. When you have Rennie Curran, you have a chance of stopping any team... and I like it this way!

So, instead of dwelling on the departures of Stafford, Moreno, Massaquoi and Allen, I prefer to look at the huge upside of returning the tremendous core of veterans that may be the most experienced group on both lines of scrimmage since Dooley danced in red pants. And I like it this way!

After a long, long quiet off-season, bereft of barking on Saturdays, 32 ounce gin and tonics, beautiful coeds by the busload, and 93,000 of my closest friends... I am ready for Continental Airlines and Avis to get my ass out to Stillwater in exactly ten days so I can watch my Dawgs Get After Their Asses in exactly 11 days. And I like it this way!!!

Hunker Down Dawg, reporting for duty Sir!

Gators will win it easily

Going on record with this prediction:
Gators 45 - Oklahoma 28

It is what it is.

DAWGS CAPITOL ONE BOWL PREDICITION

DAWGS WIN IT 44 - 28.

Happy New Year.

DAWGS and HAPPY NEW YEAR!

HAPPY NEW YEAR DAWGS!

I have been busy doing other things - like taking care of Christmas for my kids - which was awesome! Santa brought us a Wii. I jacked a homer (in practice) 623 feet just like I used to back in the day. Hampton, my 5 year old, has beaten me regularly in baseball and boxing. He won't let me throw junk when I am pitching. He says, "Daddy, you don't push any buttons because then I can't hit it." Then he turns around and strikes out my side like old Jack Morris in the 1991 World Series throwing a devastating splitter at 86 mph twice in a row then crossing me up with a 65 mph change up. I could have swung twice I was so far out front. Crafty little sneak. So far, I have handled him in tennis, but he holds the household record in bowling with a 182.

Anyway, we have had fun the past few weeks and quite frankly, I haven't paid a ton of attention to UGA related football news. I have enjoyed many of the bowl games, but not the outcome of the Navy-Wake game.

I am getting killed in my Footie Picker Bowl Picks against the spread - which is par for the course this season. But, I am still looking okay in my confidence pool. I've got a ton of points still out on the field. But, last night, I almost lost my 34 point game when Missouri needed OT to put away Northwestern. I will post both of my Bowl pool selections later just for reference.

Based on the match ups in the bowls this year, I think the SEC will not look too good (maybe because the SEC is not very good after the top 3 or 4 teams anyway). The Big East and the Pac Ten will look like heroes while the Big 12 and ACC come out looking pretty good. To me, it looks like the SEC will go 5-3 at best, but I have it picked to go 4-4. Here is how I have picked the other majors: Big East 5-1; Pac 10 4-1; Big 12 5-2 (but I am concerned about OSU tonight); ACC 5-5 is how I picked it but they may end up 7-3.

I will be back tomorrow for my Dawgs prediction. For tonight, let's go Pokes.

IMPORTANT PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

Please view this brief film about gun safety. This could help save your life!



True.

MUMME POLL after 12/06 Weekend

My Mumme Poll Ballot following the weekend of 12/06- Until further notice.

Top 5 - No particular order:

Alabama - Got Tebowed
Florida - Tebow is keeping his promise
Texas - Had to suck for them on Saturday night
Oklahoma - Ain't scoring 60 on Florida
USC - Bored

Next 7 - no particular order:

Penn State - Not bored
Texas Tech - What a year
Utah - Gets a shot to prove it against Alabama
Ohio State - Rubber match with Texas
Boise State - Chance to be perfect against the Frogs
Cincinnati - Won't surprise me if they beat VPI
Oklahoma State - Making plans to be at the Boone for Labor Day

ALABAMA vs FLORIDA

The thud from this game will be heard from Atlanta to Norman to Austin and South Central. And when the dust settles, the winner will not be the flashy, pretty, ESPN darlings. No, the workmanlike Alabama Crimson Tide will emerge victorious on the strength of the two things that matter most in all football contests: great defense and dominating offensive line play.

First, my prediction is predicated on Percy Harvin being out. He is the Reggie Bush of 2008. Having him on the field is like having two extra weapons that are both indefensible. I doubt he will play, and if he does I think he will be severely limited due to the high ankle sprain. As a result, the Florida offense loses it most lethal weapon and that tilts the scale in favor of Alabama in my opinion.

Here is how Bama rolls in Atlanta. First, the best offensive line in the country will establish control of the line of scrimmage by hitting the Gator defense in the mouth extremely hard early and often. Alabama will work the ball down the field methodically and efficiently. Watch for them to get 5 yards or more on first down. When they do that, they will get a first down almost every time. They will run the ball 70-75% of the time with two great backs - Coffey and Ingram. They will ask John Peter Piper Picked a Peck of Parker Wilson to throw high percentage passes with an occasional deep route for good measure. The key is for Bama to not turn the ball over. If they protect the ball, they will have possession for about 36 minutes, which will give them a 12 minute advantage over the Gator offense.

Assuming Harvin cannot contribute, Alabama has a much easier time gameplanning against this Gator offense that has been so amazing for the past number of weeks. First, the Gators will not be able to run inside on Mount Cody, so it will be up to the ends and LBs to make sure that Rainey or Demps does not get turned upfield at full speed. Even Georgia was able to stop these two guys by penetrating and making them run horizontally. Bama has much better talent at the edge than UGA, so they should be able to handle this. Next, they have to contain Tebow when he wants to run. This will be their toughest assignment and Tebow will make some plays to extend drives and score points. Lastly, Bama needs to force Tebow into passing situations and challenge him to beat them with his arm. Bama needs to account for Louis Murphy and the tight end. The other guys will not kill them. It really hurts Florida to be without Harvin and this will bite them on obvious passing downs.

Finally, Alabama cannot allow UF to block a punt. Sure, Brandon James is a threat to break a long one. But, so is Javier Arenas for Alabama. Both average right at 14.66 yards per return and both ahve 2 touchdowns. I call that a push.

This game will feature the two best coaches in college football in terms of scheme and game preparation. Urban's offense against Saban's defense. Since I always have and always will preach that defense wins championships, I am picking Bama to win 27 - 24.

Note: Yes I understand that Florida has a great defense and Charlie Strong should get a HC job somewhere, but I think Bama's defense caught a huge break when Harvin got hurt and that, to me, makes the difference in this close game. Of course, I could be wrong - it won't be the first time! Just read a few of my posts from the week of Halloween or Thanksgiving for proof.

Anyway... GO NAVY, BEAT ARMY!

UPDATE***
Florida played a near-perfect game. Very impressive the way other receivers stepped up in the absence of Harvin. Tebow should be the Heisman winner! He is an amazing competitor. The FLorida defense, Spikes in particular, shut Bama down in the 4th quarter and Tebow did the rest. Well done Gators.

GO NAVY, BEAT ARMY!!!

It's that time of year again. The ONE game that matters most for Navy and Army. Because Navy beat Air Force and Air Force beat Army, Navy has already secured retention of the Commander In Chiefs trophy for the 6th consecutive year.

Navy now leads the series 52-49-7 on the strength of an ongoing series record 6 consecutive wins (all with Paul Johnson was at the helm.) Navy enters the game with a 7-4 record while Army is at 3-8. Navy should win again, but Army has played several good games this season along with some stinkers. Navy is a 10 or 10.5 point favorite. I picked Navy to cover, but I would not bet on it. Still, I predict Navy 33 - Army 20.

Ooooh, Aaaah, Whitewash the Black Knights!

From the Armchair

The Tech Loss – A Few Comments

I know this is old news now, but I just didn’t feel like writing much about this for a couple of days.

1. Again, Mohamed Massaquoi played like a warrior with the heart of a lion. He is, without question, my favorite player on this offense. I hate that his amazing performance was squandered by our Keystone Cops defense. I hope to see Mo Mass having a rewarding NFL career. I think he has the work ethic and heart to contribute to any franchise in the league.

2. My favorite player on defense is, of course, Rennie Curran. For the 5th time this season, Curran recorded double digit tackles and ended the regular season with 109. It is curious that both of these standouts are one generation removed from Liberia.

3. I have to also give a ton of credit to Stafford, Moreno, Green, Chapas and the entire offense for scoring 42 points. That should have been enough to win. Even Chandler, Harris and Moore made big plays.

4. The number one reason that we gave up 409 yards rushing was the terrible kickoff team and the average starting field position for Ga. Tech. Otherwise, Tech would have rushed for well over 500 yards. Twice, Roddy could have run to Bogart without being touched – unless you count shoulder nudges.

5. My key to the game was to punish Nesbitt. That didn’t happen. He could hit hard twice and had to leave the field one of those times. However, he was not holding the ball long on the option. Once it became clear that we weren’t going to cover the pitch man anyway, why should he sell out the option and take hits anyway?

6. Tech is running the Paul Johnson offense well right now, but it can be run better. That is scary. In the game Saturday, as noted in the previous point, Nesbitt didn’t have to make anyone commit before he pitched the ball. They were able to gobble up all those yards without taking a defender out of the play by forcing him to commit to the man who will not have the ball. This offense gets even scarier when the QB comes down the line and you actually have defenders in position to make the play, but fearless execution at the edge causes you to not make the play. For examples of this type of QB play, try to find film of Chris McCoy or Brian Madden when they ran this offense at Navy. Saturday, Nesbitt did not run the option as well as it can be run and that may have been by design because of his injuries.

7. Rennie, you know I love you, but this must be said… On two of the long touchdown runs, Rennie Curran and another defender both over-pursued and allowed the Tech back to cut back inside them and then bounce off the safety shoulder nudge and off to the races. There is a lot to be said for flying around the field, but when a team runs an option into the boundary, you have to use the boundary and defend it from the inside out. (Actually, one of these runs was a toss sweep to the motion man so it wasn’t technically an option play.) Rennie was out there quick enough to stop the play, but he overran it both times. I think both of these plays were on 3rd and 6 – which was a good position to be in for our defense, but we just failed. I am sure Rennie feels worse about it than we do. GATA Rennie.

MUMME POLL after 11/29 Weekend

My Mumme Poll Ballot following the weekend of 11/29 - Clear as mud.

Top 5 - No particular order:

Alabama - Rolling, so to speak
Florida - Facing Alabama without Harvin - yikes
Texas - I would place them ahead of OU
Oklahoma - Getting the BCS love again
USC - stuck in the Rose Bowl again

Next 7 - no particular order:

Penn State - A significant season for the ageless Jo Pa
Texas Tech - Escaping at Baylor
Utah - BCS bound
Ohio State - Got the help they needed from Oregon
Boise State - Please play Ball State in a Bowl
Cincinnati - Solid season
Ball State - What the hell, they were perfect.

Back Up A Brinks Truck to Dick Bumpas's House?

Not that UGA is looking for a new DC, but hypothetically, if they were, TCU's Dick Bumpas is one of the best defensive coordinators in the country. A finalist for the Broyles Award, he has the 2nd ranked defense in 2008 and had the 2nd ranked defense in 2006 in the scoring happy Mountain West Conference with Utah and BYU.

If you want a shiny new DC, this wouldn't be a bad place to look. Read more about Bumpas here and here. One little nugget that would make you smile... in 1996, as Navy's DC, the middies beat Ga. Tech at the Joke. Unfortunately, I think PJ was the OC for that Navy team.

Bumpas is not a newbie and he sure as hell knows what he is doing. There is some speculation that TCU HC Gary Patterson is the brains behind the TCU defense, but I am not sure. Bumpas was his mentor before Patterson became a HC. I don't know much about Bumpas personally - whether he would fit in with Coach Richt's staff, etc - but he has put some great defenses on the field in his career.