Saturday, December 29, 2007
Moreno, Brown, Stafford, Bailey, Henderson, Massaquoi, Chandler, Ellerbe, Howard, Atkins, Curran, Johnson, et al. Too much for the Rainbows to handle. I give credit to Hawaii for winning all of their games and for showing a high-flying passing attack that puts tons of points on the board against the teams they played. But, the teams they played could not provide much resistance and that will make all the difference in the Sugar Bowl.
Colt Brennan has a great, accurate arm and has three bona fide outstanding receivers. They will execute amazingly well at times and wil score a few touchdowns in this game. At other times, we will be on Brennan so fast that he won't know what hit him, a la Tebow. We will sack Brennan at least 6 times. I can see us blitzing from all angles throughout the game. With the amount of pressure, that will begin in the middle with a strong push from Atkins, Owens and Weston, Hawaii will not see the end zone more than four times. So, let's go ahead and give them 28 points. In some contests, this could be a troubling figure. But, since we will score 48 or more, it isn't much cause for concern.
So, Hawaii is supposed to have defense to go along with their offense this year. But, the one defense in the WAC that was higher rated than Hawaii (Boise) got scorched by 7-5 East Carolina for 41 points. I just cannot envision us not scoring on almost every possession. Turnovers will stop drives and we may have to punt once or twice. But, Brian Mimbs will not have a busy evening. We will see Moreno and Brown ripping off 15 and 20 yard carries with regularity. A couple of 50+ yard runs are also likely. We will rush for over 250 yards. All this success running the ball will set up some easy big pass plays off of play action. Bailey, Massaquoi and Henderson will all have the ability to get behind the Hawaii secondary and if Stafford puts a few balls on the money, there will be some big plays like we had against Florida and Auburn.
I am predicting GEORGIA 48 and HAWAII 28. I am leaving for New Orleans in 30 minutes. I may update my blog from my HQ at The Royal Sonesta on Bourbon Street, or I may not.
Happy New Year and...
Go DAWGS! GATA!
Friday, December 28, 2007
Week 13
Opponent:
Kickoff: 8:00 PM
TV: FOX
In one of the more improbable seasons in recent memory, the final week of football saw even more improbability leading to an incredible amount of speculation and drama about the national title game participants. LSU, true to their cat mascot, has used a chunk of their nine lives by getting their 3rd shot at the top spot, and this is the one that matters.
Oh, and for the record, my spell check keeps insisting on putting the 2nd I in
OK, in the classic words of the Road House poster, “The dancing’s over, now it’s time to get dirty…”
About the GT game
That game was a while back and frankly I’ve enjoyed the layoff from writing, but in the interest of consistency I’ll go back and try and remember some stuff. It was reassuring to see that our offense could still produce points against a stout D without
It was a game that was odd to watch. Most every bounce seemed to go our way. Ultimately, our depth, better overall talent level and Gailey’s complete inability to coach a college QB widened the gap sufficiently so the outcome wouldn’t have likely been different, but there were some odd, odd plays early that could’ve gone either way. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen two more horribly executed punt returns than the two we managed to turn into touchbacks. Those things were just brutal.
In the end there’s not much to say beyond the fact we handled another BCS conference opponent. Oh, and we beat Tech again. You pretty much have to assume the only reason Gailey was fired was because of his 0-6 record against UGA. He was more successful than any of their coaches in recent memory but, unlike O’Leary before him, he couldn’t pull off the occasional win against UGA. It was his demise…that and his complete infatuation with Reggie Ball.
UH Offense
· The numbers of this bunch are pretty staggering. They lead the nation in scoring, averaging over 46 ppg. They sport one of the more prolific passing offenses in recent years, tossing it around for 450 ypg (2nd nationally to Texas Tech). They utilize the short passing game in place of the running game, so, as expected their running game stats aren’t incredibly impressive, averaging less than 80 ypg (113th nationally). This is a group that can put up numbers in bunches (obviously), although it should be noted that the 2 games they topped 60 were against 1AA teams (neither of which had a winning record this year). They’ve scored on everyone this year though, with their lowest output being 28 against
· QB Colt Brennan holds a ton of NCAA records and his Heisman finalist season this year was the swan song of an interesting college career that saw him begin as a walk-on at Colorado before leaving amid scandal, landing at a JUCO and ultimately transferring to UH with 3 years to rewrite history. Last year was his most impressive season, where he set all kinds of yardage and TD records. This year he had to settle for 38 TDs (despite missing time in several games) to 14 INTs and an impressive 71.4% completion rate. He’s incredibly accurate and isn’t immobile by any means although he has battled an ankle sprain for chunks of this year. He’s not the biggest guy in the world. He’s listed at 6-3, 200 pounds but seems smaller (for the record, ESPN’s draft tracker lists him at 6-2.5 and 190). He often uses a side-armed release that contributes to my perception of his size (I guess). HC June Jones is convinced that Brennan will be a tremendously successful NFL QB. ESPN has him ranked as the #9 senior QB going into the draft.
· At RB, freshman Kealoha Pilares leads the team in rushing with 362 yards on 61 carries for a solid 5.9 ypc. Brennan leads the team in carries with 73, but 20 of those are sacks, so he’s not the actual leading rusher, although he does average nearly 5 actual rushes per game. His long of the year is only 12 yards, but he does have 8 rushing TDs so you’ll have to watch him when they spread you wide down close. Aside from Brennan, their RBs have excellent numbers in terms of ypc, mostly because teams are keying on the passing game and they use a committee approach.
· The WR group these guys sport is truly nasty. They have 3 guys with 80+ catches, 12+ TDs and 1,000+ yards. Heck, their #4 WR has managed 57 catches, 786 yards and 6 TDs. Of those top 3, a different one leads in receptions, yards and TDs. Basically, Ryan Grice-Mullen, Davone Bess and Jason Rivers are interchangeable. Rivers is the tall one, and he’s coming off a torching of the
· The UH OL is a bit odd. Run n’ shoot OLs are typically smaller so they can move with the pocket, but I was expecting some more beef than what they have listed. They have one guy (LT Keith AhSoon) listed over 295, but he’s only 6-1. The entire OL interior is 6-2 and the tallest lineman they have (RT Keoni Steinhoff) is a mere 6-3 and he tips the scales at a relatively light 282. LG Hercules Satele (GREAT name for an OL or professional wrestler) is the best player of this group and could be playing on Sundays next year. Given the giant OLs we’ve faced at various times this season, these guys will certainly be different, although we did face some smallish OLs this season too. The fact Brennan has been sacked 20 times on the year despite the relatively easy slate of defenses they’ve faced gives me reason to feel at least somewhat optimistic that we should have some success against their OL. The only DI teams that didn’t sack him at least twice were Utah State (115th in sacks), New Mexico State (75th in sacks) and UNLV (76th in sacks)…I didn’t count Nevada because he only attempted 2 passes before bowing out to injury in that one.
· Bottom Line: The numbers this group has put up are certainly worthy of the buzz they’ve generated, and coming on the heels of the
· Key Matchup to watch when they have the ball: They do a lot of different things to neutralize pressure…3 step drops, rolling the pocket, etc. Even in these cases our DL can do some things to disrupt their O in terms of knocking them back off the ball and getting their hands up to disrupt passing lanes. Bottom line, if Brennan has all day, he’ll make us pay. On downs they go straight drop and stay in the pocket, we have to pressure him. Their WRs are too good and Brennan too accurate for us to hold coverage too long. Given the ability of guys like Howard and Atkins to get after the QB and the athleticism and strength of Owens, I think we should be able to get pressure on occasion.
UH Defense
· As much press as the
· The Hawaii DL has some interesting players. The most productive DE is All WAC performer David Veikune. The 6-3, 252 pound junior leads the team in sacks with 7, not bad for a guy that doesn’t start. Look for Veikune in passing situations. Senior Amani Purcell is a beefy 6-4, 277 pounder that is strong against the run. Inside, DT Mike Lafaele is the anchor. Another all-conference player on D (they have 5), Lafaele is a bowling-ball sized lineman at 6-1, 302. He’s not the type of DL to rack up a ton of stats (he only has 20 tackles on the season and 3.5 sacks), but he’s tough to move and he eats up space and blockers, freeing up their active LBs to get after the ball carrier.
· LB Solomon Elimimian is like the Hawaiian version of Rennie Curran. Undersized at 5-11, 218, the junior leads the team in tackles (an impressive 132) and is an all WAC player. He’s one of those Dat Nguyen type MLBs, undersized but with a big heart and always seems to be around the ball. His 11 TFLs are tied for the team lead. Buck LB Adam Leonard is also an All WAC performer, with 100 tackles 11 TFLs and an incredible 4 INTs. Those two form the core of an impressive LB group. Their D scheme funnels plays to these guys and they execute. Sounds easy, but when you funnel guys like Southerland and Moreno/Brown somewhere you might not necessarily like what happens when they get there.
· The secondary isn’t devoid of all-conference guys itself, with CB Myron Newberry making the list. At 5-9, 174, he isn’t the biggest guy on the team by a long shot but he’s managed some impressive stats. 51 tackles, 4 INTs and a team leading 8 pass breakups. His opposite number is Gerard Lewis, another diminutive DB (5-9, 175) that appears capable, with 48 tackles and 2 INTs. Both are seniors. Senior Jacob Petak is the leader in the back from his safety position but he’s battled injuries this year.
· Bottom Line: This group gets after the ball. They are 9th in the country in sacks and 5th in tackles for loss. They do a good job of playing aggressive, physical defense but they are susceptible to the big play. The offense they’ll be facing in this game will be the most physically mature, balanced unit they’ve faced all year.
· Key matchup to watch when we have the ball: I think it will be Southerland again. He’s been a mack truck all year opening holes and typically, if he’s heading a direction, the ball’s likely going there. Given how active
The Sugar Bowl Overall
It’s hard to get a feel for this game.
On the flip side, they did beat every one of those teams, and that certainly counts for something. They did manage to go out each week and score an impressive number of points and do whatever it took to win. Yes, some of those games were closer than they should be if
Initially I thought this was a bit of a lose-lose situation for us, as I figured that if we won, the media would discount the win as one over an obviously overrated Hawaii and if we lost we’d be painted with the same brush they broke out on us after we lost to WVU in the Sugar a few years back, saying we were clearly overrated. I don’t know that this is a lose-lose deal anymore. I can’t recall a UGA bowl getting as much pub in recent memory as this one. Every media member I’ve heard talk about the “must watch” bowls has mentioned the Sugar right near the top. The fact that many folks are calling for this as the trendy upset pick is even more reason to come out focused. Right or wrong, the media has decided that
One last thing to remember about these guys is that they play great from behind. For one thing, they have an offense perfectly suited for a comeback, especially in college, where their quick passing game lends to lots of clock stoppages (this game could be a LONG one) late. The main thing I wanted to get at was that this team has trailed several times this year and figured out ways to win, often coming from well back. Against
Positional Notes
· Lumpkin will get a shot in his final game. His career ended up being marred by injuries but he was a great guy to have around and when healthy he was a damn fine running back. He handled so many things so well (multiple injuries, splitting carries, etc.) he deserves to go out on top.
· Sean Bailey had his knee scoped but appears good to go
· There were no academic casualties this year which was excellent. This also directly refutes the roughly 12,000 Knowshon rumors that have been circling.
Random Thoughts
· If you’ve never been to
· There’s almost no way to voice displeasure over the outcome of the BCS without sounding like a whiny UGA fan so I won’t go into too much detail, but you know I have to say something. I don’t think there’s some vast ESPN conspiracy to keep UGA out of the MNC, but I do have to say I was completely disappointed in the way ESPN lobbied so strongly across the board for two teams. I was particularly disappointed in Herbstreit for tossing UGA out of the picture so quickly and repeatedly under the premise that they didn’t win their conference championship when he lobbied hard for a Michigan-OSU rematch last year. Lastly, my one question to those ESPN talking heads would be that had Notre Dame been ranked #4 in the last week of the season, not played and had #1 and #2 both lose, do you think there’s any chance at all they wouldn’t be in the title game? But wait, they wouldn’t have won their conference title either. Oh, I see, it doesn’t apply to everyone, just those schools with guts enough to be in a conference that plays a conference title game.
· While I think most UGA fans would have preferred a matchup against a team like USC in a bowl like the Rose that we so rarely have an opportunity to play in, I think most would agree that a primetime New Year’s Day bowl in a game that everyone is saying is one of the top 2 or 3 “must watch” bowls is a nice fall back plan. I hope the Rose enjoys dismal ratings.
· As I’m typing this particular part of the writeup,
· OK, some end of season recognition for a few things:
o Favorite moment of the year: the entrance of the team prior to the AU game…that game was over before it ever started…I’ve never seen that stadium like that
o Favorite drive of the year: the opening drive against UF, and I’m not talking about the celebration…9 plays, all runs, 1 TD
o Key play of the year: OT pass to
o Underappreciated play of the year:
o Offensive MVP: in a bit of a shocker, I’ll have to go with Trinton Sturdivant…Moreno gets all the pub and he was a true blessing, but Thomas Brown was nearly as productive and if he and Lumpkin don’t go down, Moreno probably isn’t required to be as productive…Sturdivant came in as a true freshman at a position of tremendous need and was a rock all year. I don’t know where we would’ve been without him.
o Defensive MVP: tougher call here but I think I’ll go with Danell Ellerbe…he was the one mainstay in the LB corps all year as injuries and newcomers flitted in and out…he also managed to lead the team in tackles
· We’ll be wearing the black jerseys again. That went well earlier. If we can bottle a fraction of the emotion we channeled for that game we’ll be OK. If we bribe the PA system controllers to play Back in Black we should be good to go. I was also pleasantly surprised to hear 2 o the ESPN radio guys talking about the black jerseys and how they were the best college football jerseys they saw all year. Impressive. Looks like we’ll be wearing them once a year from here on out, late in the year each time. I imagine
· I like the Haka (or Ha’a as I believe
Have a safe weekend,
Jody
Thursday, December 20, 2007
For the season I am 96-103. I would be thrilled to get to .500 on the year.
My picks are Bold and Gold…
Utah 8.5 Navy YEP
Fla. Atlantic 2.5 Memphis YEP
Cincinnati 11 Southern Miss NOPE (missed by 1 point)
New Mexico 3 Nevada YEP
Byu 6 Ucla YEP - Threaded the needle on this one by picking UCLA to cover the spread but picking BYU Straight up in the confidence pool in my other post.
Boise State 10.5 East Carolina NOPE
Purdue 9 Central Michigan YEP - another one threaded between the Straight up and Against the Spread
Texas 2.5 Arizona State NOPE, not even close!
Boston College 3.5 Michigan State Nope - missed by half a point
Tcu 3.5 Houston Nope
Oregon State 4.5 Maryland Nope
Wake Forest 3 UConn YEP
Central Fla. 3 Miss. State YEP
Penn State 5.5 Texas A&M YEP
Alabama 3.5 Colorado
California 3.5 Air Force
Georgia Tech 4.5 Fresno State
South Fla. 6.5 Oregon
Kentucky 1.5 Florida State
Oklahoma State 4 Indiana
Clemson 2 Auburn
Tennessee 3.5 Wisconsin
Missouri 3 Arkansas
Texas Tech 6 Virginia
Florida 10 Michigan
Southern Cal 13.5 Illinois
Georgia 9 Hawaii
Oklahoma 6.5 West Virginia
Virginia Tech 3 Kansas
Rutgers 10 Ball State
Tulsa 4.5 Bowling Green
Lsu 4.5 Ohio State
Tiebreaker #1: How many total points will be scored in the Ohio State/LSU game? 41
Tiebreaker #2: How many points will Georgia score in the Sugar Bowl? 48
Tiebreaker #3: How many points will Hawaii score? 28
Note, these picks are not against the spread, just picking the winner and allocating confidence points for each game. And yes, there is some major regional homersim going on. It may definitely bite me in the arse.
Date | Bowl Name | Teams | Confidence Rank |
1-7 | BCS Championship | | 9 |
1-3 | | | 5 |
1-2 | Fiesta | | 21 |
1-1 | Sugar | | 32 |
1-1 | Rose | | 31 |
1-6 | GMAC | | 19 |
1-5 | International | Rutgers vs. | 26 |
1-1 | Gator | | 15 |
1-1 | Capital One | | 24 |
1-1 | Cotton | | 3 |
1-1 | Outback | | 11 |
12-31 | Armed Forces | | 12 |
12-31 | Insight | | 14 |
12-31 | Chick-fil-A | | 1 |
12-31 | | | 30 |
12-31 | Humanitarian | Georgia Tech vs. | 16 |
12-31 | Sun | | 20 |
12-30 | | | 8 |
12-29 | Meineke Car Care | | 10 YEP 10 |
12-29 | | | 18 YEP 18 |
12-29 | | | 13 YEP 13 |
12-28 | | TCU vs. | 4 YEP 4 |
12-28 | Emerald | | 2 Nope 0 |
12-26 | Champs Sports | | 29 YEP 29 |
12-27 | | | 6 Nope 0 |
12-26 | | Purdue vs. | 23 YEP 23 |
12-23 | | | 27 Nope 0 |
12-22 | | UCLA vs. BYU | 22 YEP 22 |
12-22 | | | 17 YEP 17 |
12-22 | Papa Johns | Southern Miss. Vs. | 28 YEP 28 |
12-21 | | | 25 YEP 25 |
12-20 | Pointsettia | Navy vs. | 7 Nope 0 |
My picks are the teams highlighted in Gold.
The Ranking System
Once you have decided who you think will win each of the 32 games, you must rank each game with a confidence level. Each confidence level can be a number between 1 and 32. 32 being the highest confidence and 1 being the lowest. Each number must and may only be used once. You should place the higher values on the games you are more confident with. If you selected a winning team, you would earn the confidence level points you placed on that game. Your score is calculated by adding together all your correct picks confidence level points. The idea is to earn the most points.